Polling

The Ron Paul and Gary Johnson Factor

January 5th, 2012 9:13 pm  |  by  |  Published in Election, Gary Johnson, Liberty, Maven Commentary, Politics, Polling, Ron Paul, War  |  37 Responses

With Ron Paul still pushing for the GOP nomination and Gary Johnson running as a Libertarian it begs a question. I’ve written at length about how I firmly believe that Ron Paul would beat Obama in a general election; however, what about Gary Johnson? No, I don’t think he’d win, but there are likely many Ron Paul supporters who would vote for Johnson over Obama or the GOP nominee. So if that is true it suggests another reason why, if you want nothing more than to defeat Obama, Ron Paul should be your choice for the GOP nomination.

But is it true? What percentage could Gary Johnson receive should Paul not get the GOP nomination and would it be enough to help re-elect Barack Obama? I suspect it is. To add more fuel to this fire Obama is starting to campaign as an anti-war president to difference himself from the GOP field of likely nominees. This “Campaigner-In-Chief” move could be completely stymied by Republicans making Ron Paul their nominee. Who would be the real anti-war candidate if it were a Ron “non-interventionist” Paul vs Barack “drone bomber” Obama contest? This is yet another reason to make Paul the nominee.

Let’s see what you think about the Ron Paul and Gary Johnson factor.

If Ron Paul does not get the GOP nomination, but Gary Johnson gets the Libertarian Party nomination, who will get your vote in the general election?

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POLL: Rest easy Ron Paul detractors, Iowa GOP won’t let him win

January 3rd, 2012 1:18 am  |  by  |  Published in Activism, Caucus, Election, Liberty, Politics, Polling, Ron Paul  |  1

Iowans, there is no need for you to caucus tonight. It seems that new information has come out that suggests your effort to support the candidate of your choice does not matter at all. The Iowa GOP leaders will decide the winner, not you. So, go ahead and snuggle up in front of your TV’s and wait for your almighty GOP leaders to tell you the winner. And since it would be so embarrassing for a candidate to win that actually believes in and follows his oath to the Constitution unlike any of the other candidates… you don’t have to fret about Ron Paul winning. They won’t let him.

The only question is will the party bosses side with Willard “Sideburns” Romney or will they be eating a giant plate of frothy Santorum Salad on caucus night? Or will they even conspire to have Ron Paul finish in 3rd behind both or worse?

For evidence of this effort, please see this video.

What do you think?

Would it be an embarrassment to Iowa if Ron Paul were to win the Iowa Caucus?

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If you want to beat Obama, Ron Paul is your choice

January 2nd, 2012 12:52 am  |  by  |  Published in Caucus, Election, Liberty, Maven Commentary, Obama, Politics, Polling, Ron Paul  |  Comments Off

The final Public Policy Polling Iowa Caucus poll has just come out. The final tally is: Ron Paul 20%, Mitt Romney 19%, Rick Santorum 18%, and the rest further back. Even after being attacked incessantly for over a week about his newsletters, Ron Paul is still in the lead though the attacks seemed to have had an affect. His overall poll numbers are down 4%.  This poll is likely the most accurate because it doesn’t exclude itself to Republicans. In Iowa, no matter your party you can show up and register as a Republican then vote/caucus for the candidate of your choice.

It seems to me that this process is more open and most like a general election. To win the general you need independents and party-switchers. This is why Ron Paul is in the best position to beat Obama. He wins in those segments in poll after poll. Something that should negate any question of “electability”.

Following the results, something the PPP folks noted on Twitter was the following:

Young voters and indys unusual winning formula for GOP caucus but if Paul really gets them out he can win.

This comment is specific to Iowa, but Iowa is probably the best microcosm we have at this time of a general election. Paul is rather notorious for getting supporters out to vote for him. He wins or places in just about every straw poll in the country, including a very close 2nd in this summer’s Iowa Ames Straw Poll. So that is truly the bottom line, if Paul’s unusual strategy works then he can win Iowa. And that unusual strategy happens to be the exact strategy to take votes away from Obama in the general election.

Some of Paul’s detractors make the claim he’d be “dangerous for America”. Well, okay, that depends upon how you define America. If by America you mean the statist-status-quo in Washington DC and Obama’s re-election chances then yes, he’s extremely dangerous for America.

If by America you mean the country of “peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none” and if by America you mean a country that places individual liberty as its highest value then Ron Paul would be the best friend America ever had.

So yes, if you want to beat Obama, Ron Paul is your choice, but he’s also so much more than that.

Ron Paul now on top in Iowa, Gingrich fading fast

December 19th, 2011 2:29 am  |  by  |  Published in Election, Liberty, Polling, Ron Paul  |  7 Responses

In the latest poll released by Public Policy Polling, Ron Paul is now leading in Iowa with 23% of the vote. In second place is Romney with 20%. Gingrich has dropped to 14%. While the complete results are not all come up roses for Paul. They demonstrate two things that I’ve already been repeating over and over again:

  1. Ron Paul is unlikely to win the GOP nomination but…
  2. If he did win the GOP nomination, he’d beat Obama.

The poll results again show that most of Paul’s support is coming from younger people, independents, and Democrats. From the release:

Paul’s base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest.  Among voters under 45 he’s at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich.  He’s really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney’s blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters.  Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.

Read it all here at PPP.

Ron Paul is rubber, his opponents are glue

December 14th, 2011 7:45 am  |  by  |  Published in Election, Foreign Policy, Liberty, Maven Commentary, Politics, Polling, Ron Paul  |  12 Responses

Ron Paul has demonstrated how easy it is to attack Gingrich on the myriad of inconsistencies on his record. If Ron Paul is having so much success attacking Gingrich imagine what the Obama campaign machine would do to Gingrich? Gingrich is a glue for attacks. Attacking Ron Paul just isn’t fashionable anymore. Everyone has heard it all before. Most attacks on Paul bounce off of him. His years of consistency make him a difficult attack target. Some are still trying though with varying degrees of success.

I think I have a pretty good idea what getting water-boarded feels like. I’m not sure why I do this to myself, but I sometimes find myself reading the comments on Ron Paul articles appearing on various mainstream and semi-mainstream news sites. It is akin to torture. One of the more common things I keep seeing from anti-Ron Paul people is the charge of isolationism. I thought this was an old argument that most people already understood. Calling Ron Paul an isolationist is like yelling fire in a crowded theater when there is no fire. Ron Paul supporters invariably reply to set things straight. I know because I’ve done it before, too many times to count.

Today, in the billionth thread about Ron Paul’s so-called isolationism someone posted something that truly demonstrates a lack of understanding. This person said the following:

“If Ron Paul brings home our troops from other countries who’ll be there to protect freedom?”

Uh-huh. And Ron Paul is the crazy one. “Hey you, Start being free or I’ll shoot!” Let freedom ring!

Yesterday’s poll numbers from Public Policy Polling show that Ron Paul is gaining serious steam in Iowa, only a single percentage point behind Newt Gingrich. I head over to Twitter to see the reactions and I see a post from a popular “conservative” blog entitled, “No, Ron Paul is not a threat to win the Iowa Caucuses”. The article itself is full of wishful thinking analysis and struck me as a bunch of flapdoodle. Yeah, I said it: flapdoodle!

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Ron Paul nearly overtakes Gingrich in latest Iowa poll

December 13th, 2011 5:11 pm  |  by  |  Published in Election, Politics, Polling, Ron Paul  |  6 Responses

Yes it is true. Ron Paul could win Iowa. The latest poll shows Paul at 22% and Gingrich at 23% in Iowa. The rest of the candidates are at 16% and below. I can’t wait for the attack ads on Ron Paul to start up. Once that happens he will no longer be the elephant in the GOP room. He’ll be the front-runner. From the release:

Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he’s also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31).  There are a lot of parallels between Paul’s strength in Iowa and Barack Obama’s in 2008- he’s doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:

-59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18.  But among the 41% of likely voters who are ‘new’ for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%.  Paul is doing a good job of bringing out folks who haven’t done this before.

-He’s also very strong with young voters.  Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich.  With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.

Read the Public Policy Polling release for more information.

Herman Cain’s Hidden Extra Nine

October 18th, 2011 11:15 pm  |  by  |  Published in Economics, Election, Liberty, Peter Schiff, Polling, Social Security, Taxes  |  Comments Off

by Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, and host of The Peter Schiff Show, broadcasting live from WSTC Norwalk CT from 10am to noon Eastern time every weekday, and streaming at www.schiffradio.com

Herman Cain has been gaining much traction with his 9-9-9 Plan, a bold proposal to replace our dysfunctional tax code with what could be a simpler, less invasive, and more economically stimulative alternative. While I don’t agree with the full spectrum of Mr. Cain’s policy choices, I applaud his courage on the tax front. Judging by his rising poll numbers, this appreciation is widely shared. However, the plan has deep flaws, the most glaring of which is its creation of a hidden payroll tax which represents a fourth “nine.” This serious pitfall has been unmentioned by Mr. Cain and overlooked by those who have analyzed his plan.

Cain would replace the current system of income and payroll taxes with a 9% flat-rate personal income tax, a 9% corporate tax, and a 9% national sales tax. Great idea. Such a system would unburden businesses, provide a tax cut for most Americans, and shift taxation to consumption and away from income generation. This is exactly what our economy needs. But unlike our current corporate tax system, the plan eliminates the deductibility of wages and salaries from corporate income. The net effect is the creation of a brand new 9% tax on wages. When this fourth 9 falls from Cain’s sleeve, many of his opponents will likely accuse him of cheating.

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CNN and “Opinion Research Center” — The Numbers Don’t Add Up

August 30th, 2011 12:20 am  |  by  |  Published in congress, Election, Liberty, Politics, Polling, Ron Paul  |  Comments Off

As an avid political junkie, and a statistician, I’m particularly fascinated by polling. The trends of the most recent polls, and the speculation on cause and effect (Did Bachmann’s debate performance really lift her to front-runner status overnight?) are intriguing, if not in any way gratifying.

My background lends itself to picking out oddities, or outliers, as well. When a poll released by CNN and Opinion Research Center (ORC) in late May showed political afterthought Rudy Giuliani leading the race for the GOP’s presidential nomination in 2012, I thought it was a bit bizarre. Here we had a candidate who failed to register a single victory in the party’s 2008 primaries, despite spending more than Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul – two candidates who soundly defeated him at the polls – combined. A candidate who had registered at 9% in two independent polls released in the previous month – a 9% number that was well outside ORC’s 4.5% margin of error. Were they saying that Giuliani had received at least a 3% bump from April to May? Based on nothing except, perhaps, the death of Osama bin Laden?

Fast forward to today, when a new poll of the 2012 GOP race was released, showing Rick Perry with a commanding lead at 27% as compared with Mitt Romney’s 14%. Perhaps most shocking in this most recent poll was a precipitous drop in declared support for Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who received just 6% as compared with 12% in a poll by the same company and news agency not even three weeks prior – a drop that falls outside the margin of error of 4.5% for the Republican sample. Did Ron Paul – who received a mixed bag of media attention, from his near-victory at the Ames Straw Poll to his jabs at FEMA on the eve of a hurricane to the stories of his being a non-story – really experience a statistically significant drop in support over these past three weeks? I had to check the cross-tabs.

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How To Tell If You’ve Had Too Much Politics

October 3rd, 2010 8:07 am  |  by  |  Published in Debate, Election, Fund Raising, Humor, Philosophy, Politics, Polling, Radio, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Television  |  Comments Off

Just about now you, as an American voter, are reaching critical political mass. Pummeled by incessant TV, radio, and newspaper ads, and deluged by dinnertime taped phone calls you want to kill the next person who brings up the election.

Then, again, you may have crossed over into that Zombieland of voting in which you can’t seem to get enough of the heady stuff. While the former state is normal, here’s how to tell if you’ve really had too much politics for the season and are badly in need of a vacation or at least electroshock therapy:

1) You know Sarah Palin’s dog’s favorite color.
2) You can recite the Hatch Act from memory.
3) You call polling companies and beg to be polled.
4) You can’t wait for TV shows to end so you can start enjoying the campaign commercials.
5) You’ve come to believe that Rand Paul is a type of gold coin.
6) You can spell Ben Bernanke’s name forward AND backwards.
7) Your shirt has color-coded campaign buttons with Republicans on the right side, Democrats on the left, and Libertarians down the middle.
8) You agree with every political view no matter who holds it yet become irritated when someone refuses to have an opinion.
9) Your Favorites menu on your computer browser is full of campaign websites.
10) You can’t be reached on the Internet because your e-mail account is glutted with campaign spam.
11) You’ve got a space reserved in front of the early voting place so that you can get there before midnight.
12) You’ve got a tattoo of your favorite candidate on your shoulder and you were the tattoo artist.
13) You’ve painted half your car red and the other half blue.
14) You invite campaign flyer distributors into your house for coffee and cookies and to have a heart-to-heart.
15) You’ve removed the heads from your bobblehead collection and replaced them with leading candidates.
16) You straighten up campaign signs at intersections.
17) Your alarm clock has campaign ads to awaken you.
18) You call radio talk shows just to hear them breathe.
19) Instead of Fantasy Football, you play Fantasy Politics.
20) Your friends avoid you because all you want to talk about is the latest polling numbers.
21) When you dream, it’s of filling out your ballot.
22) Your iPod is full of recorded campaign speeches.
23) You’re disappointed when, after the phone rings, it’s only your mother calling and not a pre-recorded message from a local candidate.
24) You burned out your TIVO recording late-night political shows.
25) Your car has so many campaign stickers on it, it makes two miles less per gallon.

One in the Senate for Rand Paul w/ Jim DeMint, Peter Schiff, more

September 28th, 2010 7:41 pm  |  by  |  Published in Big Government, Fund Raising, Liberty, Politics, Polling, Rand Paul  |  1

Tonight begins the Rand Paul “One in the Senate” money bomb telethon. You can get all the details here:

Earlier this month, Jack Tough raised over $300,000 in a money bomb of his own, and is looking to raise another $100K in the closing days of this quarter. Now more than ever, Rand Paul needs your help. This is our last, best chance to put one defender of Liberty into the US Senate. The last week of this quarter is crucial to the campaign in terms of fundraising.

Rand’s final money bomb of the quarter starts tonight, when the ticker goes live on the RandPaul2010.com site

Tomorrow there will be a Moneybomb Telethon with special guests Senator Jim DeMint, John Dennis, Clint Didier, Jake Towne, Wayne Allen Root, Peter Schiff, Joe the Plumber, Steve Dore and more.

Yes, it is certainly time to put your money where your liberty is. This is the home stretch.

You can watch the Telethon right here beginning at 9am Eastern: