Liberty Maven

by Neeraj Chaudhary, Investment Consultant at Euro Pacific Capital

Here we go again. This week, Paul Krugman, the 2008 Nobel Prize winner in economics and the go-to guy for progressives who need a morale boost, launched another misguided attack on Austrian School economists. From his New York Times soapbox, he referred to the free-market Austrian “hard money” philosophy as a “zombie idea” that is inexplicably eating the brains of the voting public.

The attack would hardly be worth a reaction if it weren’t for the fact that column did create a buzz. In the piece, he repeated a refrain that has become common for the empirically defeated Keynesians. Said Krugman, “many economists, myself included, warned from the beginning that [President Obama's original stimulus plan] was grossly inadequate.” He continued, “[a] policy under which government employment actually fell, under which government spending on goods and services grew more slowly than during the Bush years, hardly constitutes a test of Keynesian economics.”

When looking for zombies, the first place Mr. Krugman should look is in the mirror. He has one answer to every problem: eat more taxpayers. He isn’t even a true Keynesian. Mr. Krugman is the guardian of a system that died a long time ago. He is the walking undead of the New Deal era.

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by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, and host of The Peter Schiff Show, broadcasting live from WSTC Norwalk CT from 6pm – 8pm Eastern time every weeknight, and streaming at www.schiffradio.com

There is an old adage on Wall Street: no one rings a bell to signal a market top or bottom. Yet, I have found that bells do ring; it’s just that few people know exactly what sound to listen for.

Perhaps the biggest and most liquid of all markets is for US government bonds. That market has been rallying for almost thirty years. The bull can be traced back to 1981, when Treasury bond yields peaked at about 15%. At that time, high inflation and a weakening dollar had justifiably squelched demand for Treasuries. Even the ultra-high interest rates were not enough to attract buyers.

But this was also when the proverbial bell was rung. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker had signaled, by jacking up interest rates so high, that he would stop at nothing to break the back of inflation. Volcker’s iron will, and Reagan’s unflinching support, restored demand for Treasuries for the next three decades.

We have arrived today at a similar inflection point. After falling steadily for 30 years, bond yields are now heading north with a full head of steam.

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John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital

Pre-holiday cheer is certainly evident in the financial markets. The overwhelming consensus is that the Congressional agreement to not raise taxes while extending hundreds of billions in new stimulus will finally allow the recovery to take hold. The good feelings are underscored by less-than-awful employment reports and modest slowdowns in foreclosures. Another point of optimism is the continued buoyancy of the US dollar, which has weakened over the past few months, but has not collapsed.

However, I believe the dollar’s survival remains tenuous and highly dependent on factors outside of the control of US policymakers. As I see it, the dollar is caught between four major forces: American debt levels, weakness of the euro, underlying strength of the yuan and, lastly, threats to its privileged international reserve status.

In 2010, the major collapse of the US dollar, which many of us expected to see, did not materialize.  Indeed, the dollar experienced periods of relative strength, due largely to an absence of apparent domestic inflation and concerns not just about the value of the euro, but its continued survival. In recent weeks, there have been some signs of economic recovery in the United States, of rising inflation in China, and of increasing concern about the euro. As a result, the dollar is finishing the year with some wind in its sails.

For now, the markets seemed convinced that the trillions of dollars injected into the economy by the Fed and the Administration will not be inflationary. I suspect this illogical consensus has in no small part been made possible by the government’s success in disguising the real level of consumer price inflation. However, the level of government debt continues to accelerate, promising serious problems ahead.

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by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, and host of The Peter Schiff Show, broadcasting live from WSTC Norwalk CT from 6pm – 8pm Eastern time every weeknight, and streaming at www.schiffradio.com

This week Washington displayed the kind of “bipartisanship” that will bankrupt our country and wreck our currency.  Coming at a time when both parties say they want to address our long-term fiscal imbalances, the compromise extension of the Bush era tax cuts should be a wake-up call to anyone who somehow expected the American leadership to ever have an “adult conversation” about the country’s long term economic health.

The administration and Congress are prepared to take the bold political move of not raising some taxes while significantly lowering others and greatly expanding Federal benefits. The entire cost of the $900 billion package will be financed entirely by adding to the national debt. Talk about tough love. While other countries consider ways to live within their means, Washington is intent on devising ever more creative ways to delay the day of reckoning.

While Democrats wanted more government spending,they were unwilling to vote for broad-based middle class tax increases to pay for it.  Instead they want what Democrats have always wanted: higher taxes on the “rich.” Republicans want lower taxes, but as has become typical, they were unwilling to cut government spending to enable it.By running up the deficit both sides get what they want without any political sacrifice.Sure, they break their campaign promise to cut the deficit, but the political fallout that results will be far less costly than voting for the tax hikes or spending cuts.

In truth however, there are no real tax cuts in this proposal. The true burden of government is not measured by how much it taxes but how much it spends. Since this deal ensures that government will be more expensive next year than it was this year, American citizens will have to shoulder the added cost. Just because Congress has decided to deliver the bill with debt rather than current taxes does not mean that the spending will not be paid for. The only thing the plan accomplishes is to alter the means by which government spending is financed.

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by John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital

Despite America’s economic problems, the US dollar has maintained its respected status the world over – and has even managed to maintain value in comparison to other currencies. It appears that the dollar will likely finish 2010 at the same levels that it started. Even today’s announcement of more tax cuts and stimulus, which will guarantee widening federal deficits for years to come, could not put a dent in the dollar. The dollar’s charmed life stands in strong contrast to the euro, which is currently suffering from its internal flaws and the Europeans’ unfortunate recognition of reality.

Given Washington’s monetary irresponsibility over the past decade and a half, many market observers have wondered if the euro could one day become the world’s top currency. In the early to mid-2000s, when the euro surged more than 60% against the dollar, this was in fact a popular view. But unlike all other currencies on the planet, the euro is not a sovereign currency managed by a single country. It is dependent on the collective political will of the leaders of the European Union (EU).

In the bust that followed the Greenspan/Bernanke dollar-based boom, the US economy started to deleverage significantly. Unwilling to accept the political cost of a possible failure of its banking system, the Federal Reserve decided to re-inflate out of deflation and devalue the US dollar. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB), heavily influenced by Germany, decided that deflation was necessary and inevitable. As painful as it was likely to prove, the Europeans had appeared until recently ready to face the music and delever their economies.

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by Jeff Clark of Casey Research

Warren Buffett recently remarked that you can’t value gold like an oil company or farmland, so we should forget gold and buy equities. But he misses the point! Gold doesn’t produce value because it is value; in other words, gold is money.

It’s sad to see Mr. Buffett go to the dark side. But, as I’m about to show, he’s losing company when it comes to his views on gold.

It’s difficult to fathom why a professional money manager – someone who looks at markets all day long and tries to make money for his clients – doesn’t see the in-your-face arguments for buying precious metals. It’s borderline irresponsible. You may think that’s a strong statement, but I ask: what would you do if you were responsible for investing other people’s money and found yourself in the following investment environment:

• The US government had printed more money in the past two years than at any other time in world history. Then, they printed more.

• Government spending exceeded revenues by obscene margins, and, in the most recent year, the US ran a budget deficit of $1.4 trillion.

• Interest rates were at 40-year lows.

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by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, and host of The Peter Schiff Show

Today’s payroll report severely disappointed on the downside and left economists scratching their heads to explain the weakness. The explanation, however, is plain as day. As I have been saying for years, the US economy will not create jobs as long as the Fed keeps interest rates artificially low, and Congress keeps stimulating spending and consumer debt, punishing employers with mandates, regulations, and taxes, crowding out private investment with massive government borrowing, and preventing market forces from restructuring our out-of-balance economy.As new data comes in that continues to bolster my hypothesis, the politicians in Washington continue to follow the wrong diagnosis, while ignoring evidence that their policy prescription has failed. Rather than reassessing the effectiveness of their remedy, they are merely prescribing more of the same.

No doubt the 9.8% unemployment rate (17% when counting the under-employed or discouraged workers) will spark another extension of unemployment benefits, which will provide yet additional incentives for the unemployed not to work. In addition, we will likely get another round of stimulus – paid for with higher budget deficits – that will further hinder the capital investment and business formation necessary to produce sustainable jobs. Then, the inflation created by the Fed to finance those deficits will send consumer prices higher, making life that much harder for all Americans, regardless of their employment status.

All the talk in Washington that demand must be stimulated to create jobs is farcical. The news reports of mobs of shoppers trampling over each other to fill their carts shows there is plenty of demand. What is truly lacking in our economy is supply. Those mobs are still filling their carts almost exclusively with imported products. If it were true that demand creates jobs, we would be at full employment right now, but the truth is that demand is meaningless without the productive means to supply the goods.

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by Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital (www.europac.net)

Certain deflationists have recently gone on record saying that the increase in the Fed’s balance sheet is meaningless with regard to creating inflation because our central bank can’t print money, it can only create bank reserves. The problem with their view is that it both disregards the definition of money and ignores the process of creating bank reserves.

Money is commonly defined as “a medium that can be exchanged for goods and services and is used as a measure of their values on the market, including among its forms a commodity such as gold, an officially issued coin or note, or a deposit in a checking account or other readily liquefiable account.” The Fed creates a “readily liquefiable account” when creating excess bank reserves, so it is also creating money. Since inflation is properly defined as an increase in the money supply, the Fed unquestionably creates both money and inflation when it creates reserves.

The deflationists’ error is to suppose that because the amount of currency has not grown, the money supply hasn’t grown. But the Fed never creates currency – all the printing is handled by Treasury; instead, it creates bank deposits which are held at the Fed. In ignoring this “base money,” the deflationists make no distinction between having the Fed’s balance sheet at $800 billion or $3 trillion. Doing so is a huge mistake for both making investment decisions and predicting asset price levels.

In short, for deflationists to be correct, they must contend that only money which is currently in circulation can be considered inflationary, i.e. lead to rising prices. Therefore, they must also believe that all increases in demand and time deposits should not be included in the money supply and should not be considered inflationary. This isn’t just wrong, it’s grossly wrong.

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Quote of the Day: “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money.” Illinois Senator Everett Dirksen (1896-1969)

Is Congress attempting to bribe seniors with your children’s money? The House of Representatives is considering the “Seniors Protection Act,” which gives recipients of Social Security, and other government retirement or disability programs, a $250 bonus check.

It’s one thing to call for cuts in current benefits, and another thing to suddenly ADD more spending to the ballooning national debt. Seniors, in particular, are wise enough to know the difference. And yet . . .

Apparently, a majority of legislators think that being “generous” with YOUR money – or more accurately, your children’s money — will be rewarded by senior citizens in the 2012 elections.

We suspect (and hope) that most seniors, who voted out incumbents in the recent elections, are insulted by this bribe.

Please send a letter urging Congress to defeat this bill using DownsizeDC.org’s Cut Spending campaign.

The hardwired portion of the letter begins, “Please cut federal spending.”

Here’s how I continued this letter to my representatives in Congress . . . Read More »

John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital

This week, desperation became palpable at the Fed. In both the formulaic statement that accompanied its FOMC policy decision and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s unusual (and clumsy) Washington Post op-ed follow up, the guardians of our currency expressed grave disappointment at the slow pace of US economic recovery and emphasized the continued threat of deflation. The Fed is now pledging to defeat this recession using any monetary means necessary. Unfortunately, their embrace threatens to smother our economy.Despite its paternalistic rhetoric, the Fed really has just a few simple goals: allow for the perpetual expansion of the federal deficit, push up stock prices to create the illusion of wealth, and stimulate consumer spending. To do this, the Fed will hold interest rates near zero for the foreseeable future, and will buy some $600 billion of US Treasury debt by April of next year. Per capita, the commitment to quantitative easing comes to almost $2,000 per American. What’s more, if this program fails to pull the economy out of recession, the Fed stands ready to up the ante. This amounts to little more than gambling; but instead of using their own accounts, the central bankers are wagering the nation’s savings.

Having already committed $1.7 trillion in the first round of quantitative easing, the Fed is rolling the dice once again – despite ample evidence that their costly remedy won’t work.

According to the Fed’s own analysis, the US economy continues to disappoint, despite the massive QE-1 cash injection. Given the poor fundamentals: rising unemployment, plummeting house prices, and falling stock prices, it should come as no surprise that consumer confidence is low and spending continues to lag.

Now, by monetizing almost the entire federal deficit through QE-2, the Fed hopes to give Congress the breathing room to enact reforms before skyrocketing interest rates bankrupt the Treasury. Meanwhile, the central bank hopes that the expected inflationary consequences will be nullified by a resulting broad-based recovery. But an economist as knowledgeable and experienced as Chairman Bernanke should know by now that any real economic revival will come from private industry, not government. The money printed by the Fed will indeed flow into the economy, where it will push up asset prices in many sectors. Already commodity prices are soaring. But inflation cannot create real growth.

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