Ron Paul appeared on Fox Business News tonight with David Asman on the “Nightly Scoreboard”. They discussed several topics in a nearly 10 minute segment. As usual, Ron Paul just delivers the truth.
by John Browne – Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital
Last week, to the delight of its media cheerleaders, the government announced that economic growth had returned and the recession had ended. But before we start celebrating one quarter of modest growth, we should realize the only force driving this apparent recovery is an enormous increase in government spending. To finance its largesse, the government is now borrowing at a rate that has ordinary citizens and the international community extremely concerned.
Leading into the first election season under Obama’s reign, this unprecedented government borrowing and spending is creating a false sense of security. The activity has allowed GDP to increase despite stagnation in corporate and consumer spending.
Small businesses – the most important creators of new jobs – are nervous. Due to uncertain economic conditions and a high degree of regulatory uncertainty, they are hoarding cash rather than investing. Indeed, their largest expenditures are often solely to replenish inventories.
Likewise, consumers are rationally hording their resources. Year over year, consumer spending – which constitutes 70 percent of GDP – is essentially flat. With such a large segment of the economy quiescent, the percentage increase in public sector spending has to be very large in order to push the GDP upward.
The new government spending spree has focused on major stimulus initiatives, including the new homebuyer tax credit and ‘cash for clunkers’.
The GDP numbers out yesterday, which showed economic growth at 3.5% in the third quarter, brought a deafening chorus from public and private economists who all agreed that the recession is officially over. With such a strong report, they are happy to tell us that not only has the Fat Lady finished her aria, but she has left the building and is sipping champagne in the bath. As usual, it falls on me to rain on the parade.
Even the giddiest commentators admit that the upside GDP surprise resulted almost entirely from government interventions. But, by pushing up public and private debt, expanding government, deepening trade deficits, and pushing down savings rates, these interventions have succeeded only in putting our economy back on an unsustainable path of borrowing and spending. Accordingly, they have prevented the rebalancing necessary for long-term health. Could there be a simpler illustration of trading long-term pain for short-term gain?
Rather than asking these pre-K economists to make such a three dimensional leap, it may be easier just to give them a brief history lesson.
During the decade that corresponds to the Great Depression, annual GNP expanded for six years and contracted for four. After nose-diving in the early years of the decade, GNP turned positive in 1934 and then logged three more years of solid growth (the four year average annual growth rate was 8.5%). But does anyone really believe the Great Depression ended in 1934, when the economy first stopped contracting? Unemployment reached 19% in 1938, nearly the peak of the entire Depression, almost a full decade after the stock market crashed! Why will we be so much luckier this time around?
Ron Paul questioned Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today on Capitol Hill. Both men seemed to be talking past each other a bit. Geithner reminds me of a friend who never gives you a concrete answer; thus, he is perfect for his position as tax collector. I cannot resist asking the question… what is going on with his hair? Did it always look like that or is it just due to poor video quality?
“How did I go bankrupt? Two ways. Slowly, and then all of a sudden.” — paraphrased from “The Sun Also Rises” by Ernest Hemingway
“May you live in interesting times.” — a proverbial Chinese curse
President Bush and the Republican Congress expanded government more than any administration in history. They also laid the basic foundations for a future police state. Now, President Obama and the Democratic Congress have . . .
Retained, and in some cases expanded, all the Bush-era policies — the wars, the PATRIOT Act, warrantless spying, REAL ID, imprisonment without due process, extraordinary rendition, etc.
Begun to extend the already existing foundations for a future socialist state with things like direct government ownership of businesses, the health care bill, cap and trade, and a host of other measures big and small
Put the Bush and Obama policies together, sprinkle in a couple more terrorist attacks, and one or two more state-caused financial calamities, and you have a recipe for . . .
The destruction of American liberty
The blossoming of a Leviathan State
Read the signs . . .
We are living through a Statist revolution.
Statism is a mindset that prefers coercion to cooperation. Statists love the State because they are blind to its fundamental nature . . .
The State is a monopoly that you cannot easily fire, replace, or even control
For the most part, the value of the dollar is given cursory attention by the financial media. Typically, its movements are assigned an importance on par with much less determinative metrics such as natural gas futures and construction permits. It’s only when major milestones are reached that anyone really takes notice of the dollar. We are living through one of those times.
The great dollar rally of 2008-2009 has come full circle. When the financial crisis exploded in its full ugliness in mid-2008, the dollar, which had steadily declined over the previous four to five years, put in a rally for the record books. By March 2009, as investors across the world sought safety from the financial storm, the index had surged more than 25%. Since then, the dollar has steadily declined to the point where nearly all those gains have vanished. In short, the panic rally has given way to the long term trend.
So, as the dollar index makes fresh 52-week lows on a nearly daily basis, discussion on the greenback is heating up. And while real insight on the topic is hard to find, the debate centers on the battle between two conventional opinions – both of which are wrong.
The first camp, which is generally supportive of government intervention in the economy, argues that dollar’s decline is a positive for both the economy and the stock market. The second camp, which tends to fall on the more conservative end of the political spectrum, views the dollar’s decline as a problem but feels that tough talk and slightly higher interest rates are all that is needed to restore ‘King Dollar’ to its throne.
First of all, a weak dollar is no better for Americans than a lower paying job is for a worker. And although I would prefer that the dollar remain strong, I know that currency values are a function of supply and demand, not wishful thinking. The past years of reckless monetary and fiscal policy have created conditions that must push the dollar down. Vastly expanded debt levels and monetary expansion have created a greater supply of dollars, while poor investment performance and diminished industrial capacity have lessened the demand for dollars.
Ron Paul was interviewed by Tavis Smiley on his PBS show last night. I remember really enjoying Smiley’s questioning and demeanor throughout his questioning during one of the GOP primary debates during the campaign of 2008. A debate that some of us here at Liberty Maven attended.
In this interview they discuss the U.S. foreign policy in Afghanistan, Ron Paul’s new book “End the Fed“, and how the Fed can be audited and eventually abolished.
This morning Ron Paul appeared for an interview on the state of the economy and the Goldman Sachs “bailout” on CNN “American Morning”.
As usual Dr. Paul defends the free market even when asked rather convoluted questions about “how much” the government should support the market. I found the interview a bit odd. In that both the host and Paul were trying to find some kind of middle ground between a government managed economy and a free market position. The common point implied that the government shouldn’t be bailing out these big Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs yet they continue to use tax payer money to do so.
Check out the video below. NOTE: The audio/video sync appears to be off as is custom on some videos processed by Youtube.
Ever wonder what happened to that sense of hope and change that most of the voters in the United States were swept up by last fall?
America does need“hope.” America does need “change.”
However, the mainstream Republican and Democratic party machines are both repeating like bad records – “morespending,moretaxes,morewar,more debt.”
If you flip the record, all you hear is “lessliberty,fewerjobs,lessprosperity.”
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider a sound money and slashing federal spending?
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider auditing and cutting back the powers of the ruinous FED?
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider destroying theIMMORALandUNNECESSARY federal income tax?
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider a different foreign policy – where there is third choice besides bombing or economic sanctions? Why not replace the blowback our foreign policy has resulted in with a little love and peaceful trade?
While all the talk at present is about economic corners turned and markets charging ahead, no one is paying much notice to an American economy deteriorating before our eyes. These myopic commentators seem to be simply moving past the now almost-universally held conclusion that before the crash of 2008, our economy was on an unsustainable course. If these imbalances had been corrected, then perhaps I too would be joining in the euphoria. But evidence abounds that we have not veered at all from that dangerous path.
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending as a percentage of U.S. GDP has risen to 71%, a post-World War II record. This level is notably higher than other wealthy industrialized countries, and vastly higher than the levels sustained by China and other emerging economies. At the same time, our industrial output is contracting, our trade deficit is expanding once again (after contracting earlier in the year), and our savings rate is plummeting (after an early year surge).
The data confirms that government stimuli are worsening the structural imbalances underlying our economy. The recent ‘rebound’ in GDP is not resulting from increased economic output, but merely from the fact that we are borrowing more than ever. That is precisely how we got ourselves into this mess. An economy cannot grow indefinitely by borrowing more than it produces. Not only is such a course untenable, but the added debt ensures a deeper recession when the bills come due.
This soon-to-be-called depression will not end until the pendulum of consumer spending habits swings violently in the other direction. This will be a jarring change, but it is the splash of cold water that we need to return our economy to viability. I believe that consumer spending as a share of GDP will need to temporarily contract to roughly 50% of GDP, before eventually moving toward its historic mean of 65%. Such a move would indicate a restoration of our personal savings, a decline in borrowing and trade deficits, and an increased industrial output. That would be a real recovery.
In the meantime, the higher the spending percentage climbs, the more painful the ultimate decline becomes.
Liberty Maven
by John Browne – Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital
by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of 
“, and how the Fed can be audited and eventually abolished.
Ever wonder what happened to that sense of hope and change that most of the voters in the United States were swept up by last fall?
by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of 
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