by Peter Schiff

Imagine a day when you go to buy a quart of milk, ask the price, and the cashier says, “that’ll be a tenth ounce silver.” As the US dollar’s decline accelerates, several efforts around the country are trying to make this vision a reality.

Historically, paying for items in silver or gold was actually quite common. We happen to live in an unusual time and place where generations have grown up trading exclusively in paper. While my parents still used dimes made of silver, we have now gone several decades with no precious metals in any of our official coinage. But this system of money by government fiat is unsustainable.

While the practice of bartering precious metals directly for goods and services has continued on a small-scale over the last few decades, the 2000s saw the beginning of organized efforts to revive gold and silver as money.

THE LIBERTY DOLLAR

One such effort was spearheaded by an eccentric mintmaster from Hawaii named Bernard Von Nothaus. He called his project the Liberty Dollar, and it centered on privately minted gold and silver rounds as well as deposit certificates for precious metals held in his firm’s vaults.

I had many reservations about how the project was implemented – coins were minted with a fixed US dollar amount at which they were supposed to circulate, the dollar amount was well above the spot price of the metal, and authorized “distributors” were allowed to pocket the difference (which often resulted in buyers paying far higher prices for their gold than what they would have paid had they simply bought, say, Canadian Maple Leafs instead) – but I believe Nothaus’ idea was a good one, even if the product was over-priced. Tellingly, despite the obvious flaws, public participation grew steadily from 1998 until 2007, when federal agents raided the Liberty Dollar’s offices on trumped-up charges of counterfeiting.

Really, they were charging him with competing with the US dollar’s monopoly privileges by offering a better product. It’s important to note that the case against Nothaus was built around his coins looking similar to official US coinage (though no one actually mistook Liberty Dollars for US currency), and not around encouraging people to use precious metals as circulating money.

DIGITAL GOLD

Next came a crop of internet-based currencies backed by gold and silver. Most prominent among them are eGold and GoldMoney. Both were designed to allow customers to open online accounts that were valued in, and backed by, gold and silver bullion.

eGold was perhaps the better known of the two until it, too, was shut down by the US government on charges of money laundering. eGold was positioned more as an online payment system than a means of holding bullion. Due to the anonymous nature of the transactions – it was akin to spending cash – the authorities alleged that it was being used by criminal enterprises to funnel illegal funds. But mostly it was being used by regular people to begin saving and trading in money that holds its value. eGold had a transparent system of annual audits and live transaction screening by any user to keep the system honest. It, too, was growing robustly, and was putting up strong competition against PayPal until the authorities intervened.

GoldMoney, founded by my friend James Turk, has remained in operation by keeping its principal operations overseas and by cooperating fully with onerous US financial regulations. It offers similar services to eGold, but with an emphasis on long-term storage. GoldMoney improves upon traditional storage by locating offshore, offering real-time online account access, and providing extra liquidity. These services do come at a cost, however. Still, over the course of the last decade, GoldMoney has swelled to over $2 billion in assets. Clearly, many people want to trade gold and silver over US dollars.

Digital gold is a niche service, but I think the public’s rapid embrace of these projects – none older than ten years – shows that investors are viewing gold and silver as more than mere commodities, but once again seeing them as money. This could signal a paradigm shift back to tradition, which is good news for any precious metals holder.

STRAIGHT UP BARTER

While digital currencies are neat, in practical terms, nothing beats the resilience of traditional barter of bullion for goods and services. If you actually own the physical gold and silver that you intend to save or trade, then you can be sure it will be there until you’re ready to sell. You don’t have to trust anyone except yourself.

In that vein, several efforts have popped up around the country to simply get people trading gold and silver rather than dollars. Since the transactions involved are usually small, such as buying lunch at a local diner, silver is typically the metal of choice.

There are several hotspots for this sort of activity.

Philadelphia has one group, DelValley Silver, that has fostered a local barter market there by encouraging merchants to accept silver coins in addition to dollars. DelValley is also a silver dealer, but they sell privately minted rounds, which can be harder to liquidate than well-known coins like the American Gold Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf.

Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, many merchants associated with the Free State Project have begun accepting gold and silver at their businesses. Innovation abounds here and the practice of encasing small amounts of silver in laminated cards seems to be the most successful.

Shire Silver encloses silver and gold wire in their cards and measures them in terms of grams. It’s much easier to trade a flat, plastic card containing a gram of silver than to carry around a 1 oz coin. However, even their website will admit that the premium on such a small amount of silver makes it less than ideal for investment purposes. Of course, when you’re ready to barter, they’ll be happy to take your 1 oz rounds in return for some Shire Silver. And that Shire Silver is being accepted by more and more merchants across New Hampshire and beyond.

Another variation, from a group based in Phoenix, Arizona, encloses a pre-1965 US dime inside the laminated card. Before ’65, every dime contained 90% silver, making them worth about $2.50 each in today’s debased dollars. That’s why you won’t find any pre-’65 dimes in your change from the grocery store. However, one fellow had the clever idea of putting them in these cards so they could trade at their silver value without getting mixed in with the worthless dimes we carry around today. The same group even created a free iPhone app that translates US dollar prices into various amounts of silver (more info here).

While I’ll still be selling regular old bullion coins and bars at Euro Pacific Precious Metals, because these are the best way to invest in physical precious metals, I am energized by these efforts. The great thing about holding and bartering physical precious metals is that there is no central company running the operations, like with the digital gold currencies, and therefore there’s no single person the government can go after.

(My new offshore bank, Euro Pacific Bank, Ltd., will soon be offering Visa-branded debit cards back by individual holdings of gold or silver. Euro Pacific Bank customers will be able to purchase gold from the bank, have it stored, and then access their holdings directly using their Visa cards to either make purchases though merchants or withdraw cash from banks and ATMs. Unfortunately, due to the reasons described above, I cannot offer this service to US customers. For more information about my offshore brokerage and banking companies, please visit www.europacintl.com.)

THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL

Besides these grassroots efforts at building barter communities, I’m seeing a cultural shift in favor of precious metals. Utah recently passed a law establishing gold and silver as legal tender and abolishing state capital gains taxes on their appreciation. I was interviewed for a new animated film called Silver Circle that features a rebel group in the near future which mints silver coins in defiance of an even more aggressive Federal Reserve. More and more people are starting to watch the gold price as often as they watch the Dow.

Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, a gold and silver dealer selling reputable, well-known coins at competitive prices. To learn about our products and policies, please visit www.europacmetals.com or call us at (888) GOLD-160.

Despite loud huzzahs from a variety of boosters who proclaimed that Chairman Bernanke spoke with gravitas and wisdom at the first ever Federal Reserve press conference, the wider investing public clearly saw the performance as unconvincing. During and immediately after the proceedings the prices of gold and silver rose strongly to new highs as the U.S. dollar plummeted. The affair seemed to solidify the understanding that Bernanke and his cohorts have no intention whatsoever to reverse the current trend of inflation and a weakening dollar.

With all the preliminaries swept away, it appears that the great dollar slide that we have long feared will not be interrupted. In the last year alone, the dollar has fallen 25 per cent against the Swiss Franc, (the gold standard of fiat currencies) – with one quarter of that decline coming since the beginning of April alone. Against gold itself (the gold standard of all forms of money), the decline has been even worse, 31 per cent so far this year, and 8 per cent this month.

Ominously, the dollar index (the broadest measure of dollar strength) is just a percentage point or two above the all time lows that it set before the financial panic of 2008 sent spooked investors into the apparent safety of America’s deep and liquid Treasury market. It appears that spell has now been fully broken.

Bernanke’s press conference was heralded as a chance for the press to ask penetrating and unscripted questions to the Chairman. However, only a handful of reporters were selected and they were limited to single questions. As any lawyer will tell you, usually it is not a single question, but a line of questioning that tends to tease out the truth.

In addition, it is no accident that Bernanke called upon reporters who were likely to tread lightly upon him, including the reliably supportive Steve Liesman of CNBC. One intrepid Financial Times reporter even asked the Chairman how the investing public can be persuaded to give up their irrational fear of inflation!  Given the supportive environment it was easy for Bernanke to appear commanding and reassuring while skirting the key issue of latent inflation.

Clearly however, Chairman Bernanke still was worried about the slow pace of the U.S. recovery. Claiming substantial success for his QE1 and 2, he left the door at least partially open for a QE3. Perhaps this, more than anything, tipped his hand to the anti-inflation hawks. Most probably, they continue to believe that the Fed will assist the Administration in its bid to inflate out of recession by means of political life support rather than genuine consumer demand. Many investors now accept that the government’s plan involved debasing the U.S. dollar to erode the massive and profligate debts of the U.S. Treasury.

Key to the reasoning of Bernanke and his FOMC are balancing the rates of inflation and unemployment in pursuit of the Fed’s dual mandate of securing sound money and employment. Somewhere along the way, although never proclaimed officially, the Fed decided that its “mandate” compels them to maintain inflation at a minimum of 2 per cent annually.  With Bernanke citing the official inflation rate at 1.3 percent, the conclusion is easily made that the Fed sees no reasons to step on the brakes.

At the same time he expressed sympathy for those American householders who are experiencing inflation at least in double digits for oil and food. This means that, in terms of real money, all investors in bank deposits are being robbed of some 8 per cent each year. This hidden transfer of wealth from the private to the public sector and their banks is just part of the massive general and stealthy transfer of wealth from the private sector.

In 1994, in response to political pressure the formula used to calculate unemployment figures was changed. It is my belief that the current methodology understates the true number of unemployed. Most notably this was achieved by excluding those unemployed over the long-term. Although knowing this better than anyone, Bernanke expressed concern about the level of long-term unemployment. However, in claiming to show the efficacy of his recent policies he continued to quote the 8.8 per cent unemployment figures that exclude such workers. If he had included them the real level would be some 16.2 percent.

While the stock markets welcomed the fact that Bernanke intends to continue his covert inflationary policies, the currency, gold and silver markets were not fooled and gave Bernanke a resounding thumbs down.

by Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals and author of the hit economic parable How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes

In the world of precious metals, silver spends a lot of time in the shadow of its big brother gold.

Gold, with its high price-to-weight and distinctive yellow tint, has always occupied a special place in the human psyche. To many people across many ages, gold is simply the ultimate form of money – and, as a long-term, stable store of value for one’s personal wealth, I agree it’s hard to beat.

However, rare circumstances are aligning today that I believe will make silver the true champion of this bull run.

WHAT’S DRIVING PRECIOUS METALS?

Gold and silver are both benefitting from a perfect storm in the sector.

Dollar devaluation means that much of the ‘gains’ we see are really just losses by people holding dollars. In other words, if your dollars lose 50% of their value, it’s going to take twice as many of them to buy the same ounce of gold.

But the rally is based on more than simple inflation. Precious metals are regaining their role as the ultimate reserve asset. That means many, many more people are buying and holding these metals than at any time in the last thirty years.

Another factor is the rise of emerging markets and decline of developed markets. As billions of poor Asians, Africans, and South Americans lift themselves out of poverty by embracing the free market, the US is plunging itself into poverty by rejecting it. This means there are a mind-boggling number of new customers for jewelry, savings, and industrial products that require precious metals – and that we are becoming less and less able to outbid them for these resources with our dollars.

SILVER’S DRIVING FASTER

If the world were going to hell in a hand-basket, then I would expect gold to outperform silver. However, it is only the developed economies that are on the rocks – and only the US that faces true catastrophe. Thus, we have seen silver outperform gold for the last eight years.

The market is telling us that while uncertainty reigns supreme, the global economy will prosper in the years ahead. While gold most effectively insures the investor against economic devastation, silver offers both a shield against monetary turmoil and exposure to market growth.

THE KEY: INDUSTRIAL DEMAND

This is because silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal. Gold is mostly precious, copper is mostly industrial, but silver strikes a fine balance between the two. And it seems as if this moment in history is perfectly suited to this balance. We are facing not only the prospect of the collapse of the international monetary order, but also the largest industrialization process the world has ever seen.

While in a past era, wood, steel, or oil would have been the most critical commodity, today silver is used in everything we hold dear: iPhones, flat-screen TVs, batteries, solar panels, etc. Asia – the new heart of the global economy – is accumulating gold, but they’re consuming silver. That makes both metals good bets, but likely gives silver the edge.

It’s safe to say the future depends on a steady supply of silver. This burgeoning demand is reflected in the latest figures: global demand for silver is about 890 million ounces a year, while global mine production is about 720 million ounces a year. We’re actually consuming scrap to make up the difference. And unlike gold, which tends to remain in a recoverable state as coins or jewelry, a large quantity of silver is ending up in trash dumps – where it is essentially lost forever.

As long as the emerging markets continue to trend toward freer markets, and consumers the world over continue to demand computers, electronics, and green tech, silver should only become more scarce – and thus more valuable. I think these assumptions are pretty safe to make.

CAN THE WORLD THRIVE EX-US?

Of course, if everyone agreed with me, silver would already be worth hundreds of dollars an ounce and there wouldn’t be any profit to be made on the trade. Fortunately, there are a couple of bogeymen in the financial media scaring the majority of investors away from silver so far.

First, some analysts still believe – bless their hearts – that the US is really going to pull through this time into a sustainable recovery. After being duped by dot-coms and then housing, they are all aboard the Treasury Express back to Bubbletown. Unfortunately, as in the previous two cases, the current low interest rate environment is merely masking an underlying economy that is vastly more rotten than it was even a decade ago. The unemployment rate is a key signal that this time, Bernanke’s magic medicine won’t work.

A second cohort sees that the US is doomed, but still thinks we will drag the rest of the world down with us. This is the school that holds that despite our persistent current account deficits and monumental external debt, the world economy “needs” the US consumer to drive growth. As I alluded to in my book, How An Economy Grows And Why It Crashes, this is like a plantation master claiming his slaves need him around to consume the fruits of their labor, or else they wouldn’t have anything to do. Well, the results are in: after an initial panic rush into dollar-based assets, emerging markets are back at full sprint while the US is still limping along.

SILVER IN A DOLLAR COLLAPSE

Just like a Hollywood celebrity, we in the US spent our time at the top of the world – and soon let our status get to our heads. And like a celebrity, our adoring fans the world over will be quick to forget us as we fall from the limelight and deal with our powerful addiction to partying and cheap money. To survive the next decade in America, you are going to want an asset that is in demand globally, but is also free from counterparty risk here at home.

I recently did an interview with a group that is making a film about living in America in the year 2019. The premise is that inflation is rampant, the economy is in shambles, and groups are springing up that do all their trading in silver rounds. While I think their timeline is quite generous, this is a fairly accurate picture of what lies ahead.

Not only does silver appreciate while sitting in your safe due to overseas demand, but it also comes in units that are ideal for use as a common trade unit. Two or three ounces of silver can buy you groceries for a week. By contrast, just try to eat an ounce of gold’s worth of vegetables before they spoil. There are fractional gold coins and bars, but they carry very high markups.

None of us have had to think about these things in our lifetimes, but it is not abnormal in history. Soon, understanding precious metals will be as much a survival skill as knowing how to change a car tire.

THE GOLDEN RATIO

I always say that every investor should have at least 5-10% of his portfolio in physical precious metals. Of that, the proportion allocated to gold vs. silver depends mainly on risk tolerance. Silver tends to be more volatile than gold, so silver investors must have the discipline not to liquidate their stash at the first sign of a correction.

I generally advise a ratio of 2:1 gold-to-silver in the average portfolio. More aggressive investors can push it to 1.5:1 or beyond.

Year-to-date, silver is up 5 percentage points more than gold, and I expect that trend to continue. It’s important to understand that in this fast-changing world, silver is no longer runner-up.

Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, a gold and silver dealer selling reputable, well-known coins at competitive prices. To learn about our products and policies, please visit www.europacmetals.com or call us at (888) GOLD-160.

In current economic analysis, inflation is largely in the eye of the beholder, and depending on how you choose to look, very different stories emerge. In the U.S., food and beverages count for just 16.4% of the CPI calculation. The Chinese apparently believe that the basic necessities of life should count for more, assigning a 33% weight to the nutritional components. These differences in measurement are partially responsible for the divergent inflation climate in both countries, and make most people believe that inflation is fickle and localized. From my perspective, inflation is a global wave that will ultimately swamp all shores.

As the world’s economic leaders gather in Davos Switzerland, much of the discussion has been focused on a report jointly issued by the Global Economic Forum and McKinsey & Co. which forecasts a $100 trillion increase in global debt in the coming decade. The authors of the report argue that such an increase will be needed to maintain global economic health. Strangely, while acknowledging how the massive increase in credit caused the global financial crisis of 2008, the report’s authors admit no fear of even greater leverage today. They conclude: “Credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and much more of it will be needed to sustain the recovery and enable the developing world to achieve its growth potential.”

But the global credit stock has already doubled from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in 2009, with disastrous consequences. The WEF report wouldn’t be so alarming if it wasn’t emanating from a gathering of global central bankers, business leaders and politicians. These are, unfortunately, the folks with all the power to turn these ideas into reality.

In his State of the Union address, President Obama kept pace with the madness in Davos by vowing to “slash” government debt by just $400 billion in 10 years. However, almost simultaneously the Congressional Budget Office upped its 2011 deficit projection to $1.48 trillion, which is over $400 billion more than it previously forecasted — effectively wiping Obama’s cuts before they are even formally proposed.

The myopia extends into the legislative branch. In a recent appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, Senator Harry Reid said, “When we start talking about the debt, the first thing people do is run to Social Security. But Social Security is fully funded for the next 40 years.” Apparently the Senator pays no attention to the non-partisan CBO either. Last week the office states that Social Security will run permanent deficits beginning this year, 5 years sooner than expected. If we aren’t going to be honest about the insolvency of Social Security and Medicare, how can they possibly be fixed, and how can the costs ever be contained? The unfortunate truth here, once again, leads to the conclusion that financing our nation’s entitlement programs will be done courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

The CBO also said that the government will run up an additional $12 trillion in debt over the next decade if current taxing and spending policies remain in effect. Their report contained this foreboding comment: “…a growing level of federal debt would also increase the probability of a sudden fiscal crisis, during which investors would lose confidence in the government’s ability to manage its budget, and the government would thereby lose its ability to borrow at affordable rates.” The fact that our elected leaders fail to understand basic economics, or simply bury their heads in the sand, underscores why inflation will be a major factor in the years ahead.

For me, there is no escaping the conclusion that inflation will continue to surge. Inflation is, after all, the increase in money supply. And there appears to be no escaping the likelihood of massive floods of new money rolling off presses around the world, especially in Washington. But to a degree that is virtually ignored by many economists, a currency’s purchasing power is not only affected by money supply growth but also from the mere perception of it. Just like Enron shares became worthless overnight, if the U.S. is deemed to be insolvent because it cannot pay back its debt, the currency could plummet in a very short period of time, even if that pending supply of dollars has yet to be printed.

When you understand these basic issues, the decision to include precious metals, and other stores of value, in investment portfolios becomes a foregone conclusion.

You can watch the entire show here at CSPAN.org.

When asked about recent Economic Nobel Prize winner, Paul Krugman’s Keynesian worldview. Paul shakes his head, laughs, and half-jokes that he prays every night that Krugman’s ideas would just disappear.

Me too Dr. Paul. Me too.

VA Classical Liberal writes:

If John Maynard Keynes and F.A. Hayek got into a fight, who’d win?

If it was a real knock-down, drag-out brawl, my money would be on Keynes. At 6’ 6”, he’s got the size, the weight and the reach. Hayek couldn’t lay a glove on him.

But what if they were cutting heads and throwing down rhymes? Then, Keynes could have a real fight on his hands.

You can read the rest of the discussion, and comment, here.

by Neeraj Chaudhary, Investment Consultant, Euro Pacific Capital

It’s starting to look like Chinese labor has had enough. Led by workers at the Honda Motors plant in Zhangshan, and perhaps spurred by the suicides of ten workers this year at Foxconn Technology (a supplier to high technology companies such as Apple, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard), Chinese factory workers and other laborers across the country are going on strike. In so doing, these workers are defying the orders of their government-run unions and risking dismissal by their employers. I believe that this monumental step in the development of China’s economy will result in a positive outcome. From an international perspective, these strikes may do more than improve working conditions in Chinese factories; they may, in fact, force a currency reform (long-delayed by the Chinese Communist Party) that will have serious implications for the global economy.

Since at least 2001, when China acceded to the World Trade Organization and accelerated its dramatic export-led growth, American businesses and workers have complained bitterly that Chinese manufacturers enjoy an unfair advantage by virtue of the PRC’s currency manipulation. The argument – which Americans also alleged against the Japanese in the 1970s and ’80s – is that by inflating its currency, the government of China is deliberately keeping the prices of its goods low, thereby taking market share from US businesses and jobs from US workers.

The Economic Policy Institute recently estimated that the United States lost 2.4 million jobs since 2001 to China alone. Economist Peter Morici estimated that the US economy would likely be $1 trillion larger than it is now were it not for our trade deficits with China.

For years, the Chinese government has steadfastly refused to allow its currency to float freely, fearing that a higher yuan would choke off exports, leading to slower economic growth. There was a brief respite a few years ago, when the People’s Bank of China allowed the yuan to appreciate by approximately 20% from July 2005 to July 2008. However, the Chinese government has generally taken the approach that it will not bow to external pressures, but rather manage its currency in accordance with China’s own internal needs.

This situation has led to increased tension in Sino-American relations. The US recently came close to branding China a “currency manipulator,” a label which implies the threat of trade sanctions. And once again, Beijing reiterated its policy of not succumbing to foreign influences in managing the yuan. As of this writing, the dollar-yuan exchange rate remains fixed.

But with Chinese workers now striking across their industrial heartland, China’s internal pressures are beginning to exceed the anemic pressure brought by Washington. This may finally push the Communist Party toward reform.

Officials in Beijing know that, in reality, the Chinese workers are not striking against management, as we might expect in the West, but against the ruinous inflation caused by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). In order to maintain the ‘peg’ of the strengthening yuan to the weakening US dollar, the PBoC has been forced to print new money in lockstep with the Federal Reserve. Since the start of the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has more than doubled the number of dollars in circulation. This inflation, exported to China via the peg, has resulted in frothy real estate prices in some Chinese markets, as well as consumer prices increasing at a rate of more than 3% per year (and probably much higher, given the propensity for all governments to systematically understate this data). According to the Washington Post, there is widespread “frustration among younger, urbanized workers that their wages have stayed relatively meager even as prices all around them — particularly for housing — have soared.”

This past week several emerging and ongoing crises took attention away from the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Greece.  The bailouts are merely kicking the can down the road and making things worse for taxpaying citizens, here and abroad.   Greece is unfortunately not unique in its irresponsible spending habits.  Greek-style debt explosions are quickly spreading to other nations one by one, and yes, the United States is one of the dominoes on down the line.

Time and again it has been proven that the Keynesian system of big government and fiat paper money are abject failures in the long run.  However, the nature of government is to ignore reality when there is an avenue that allows growth in power and control. Thus, most politicians and economists will ignore the long-term damage of Keynesianism in the early stage of a bubble when there is the illusion of prosperity, suggesting that the basic laws of economics had been repealed.  In fact, one way to tell if a bubble is about to burst is if economists start talking about how the government and the Central Bank have repealed the business cycle.

The truth is the laws of economics are constant and real, no matter how inconvenient they might be to politicians and bankers.  This reality is setting in and the bills are coming due.  In the mean time, countries that have no money have bailed out other countries that have no money, except for the phony money created by politicians, bureaucrats, and their partners-in-crime at the central banks.  This may be preventing big well-connected banks from having to take on massive losses, but it is all at the expense of the taxpaying citizen.

As governments and central banks continue the cycle of spending and inflating, the purchasing power of their currencies is constantly being degraded.  These currencies are what the people are working for and saving.  This inflation guts the savings and earnings of the people, who have very limited options for protecting themselves against these ravages.  One option is to convert their fiat currency into something out of reach of central banks and government spending, such as gold or silver.

It is fairly typical in the midst of economic crises like these for gold to come under attack from Keynesians economists and their amen corner in the media.  The arguments against gold are usually straw men, based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the purpose of buying gold.  Gold is not a typical investment.  It is a defense against the predictable behavior of governments to debase a fiat currency under its absolute control.  The people who run the printing presses have trouble shutting them off.  In order to limit one’s exposure to this reckless behavior, it is wise to exchange unsound assets for sound ones.

As the foundation of their power, their fiat currency, is rejected or avoided, government power is compromised.  Fiat currencies trade the people’s freedom and security for the government’s freedom to squander the wealth of the nation on wasteful pet programs, wars, and corruption.  This is why the freedom of the people is so intertwined with a sound monetary unit.  This is also why the founders liked gold and silver, and supporters of big government hate them.

by Neeraj Chaudhary, Investment Consultant, Euro Pacific Capital

With the mainstream media focusing on the country’s leveling unemployment rate, improving retail sales, and nascent housing recovery, one might think that the US government has successfully navigated the economy through recession and growth has returned. But I will argue that a look under the proverbial hood reveals a very different picture. I believe the data shows that the US economy is badly damaged, and a modern-day depression has begun. In fact, just as World War I was originally called The Great War (and was retroactively renamed after World War II), Peter Schiff has said that one day the world will refer to the 1929-41 era as Great Depression I, and the current period as Great Depression II.

For starters, look at unemployment. During Great Depression I, unemployment broke 25%. If government statistics are taken at face value, the current unemployment rate is 9.9%, but a closer look reveals that the broadest measure of unemployment is currently at 20% – and rising. So, today’s numbers are in the same ballpark as the ’30s even though the federal government is using unprecedented measures to keep the economy afloat. Remember, in Great Depression I, FDR never ran a deficit nearly as large as President Obama’s. Moreover, the Federal Reserve of the 1930s still had a gold standard with which to contend, while today’s Fed has increased the monetary base with impunity. Yet even with all that intervention, unemployment figures still indicate that we have entered depression territory.

What is demoralizing to an unemployed person is not simply being let go, it is being unable to find a new job for an extended period of time. And this is where Great Depression II really rears its ugly head. According to the US federal government’s own data, the median duration of unemployment is now over five months – and rising. This is the highest it’s been since the BLS started compiling this statistic in 1965. As workers start to go this long without jobs, they eat into their savings. Eventually – and especially in a country with a savings rate as low as ours and debt as high as ours – they run out of cushion and hit the street. Formerly middle-class people have to make decisions never thought possible: do I eat in a shelter or go hungry in my home?

It’s no surprise, then, that about 40 million people – or one out of every eight Americans – are receiving food stamps in Great Depression II. During the height of Great Depression I, the rate was just one out of thirty-five Americans. Even with the stimulus programs, Great Depression II is actually worse on this measure than Great Depression I – and the USDA estimates that the program could grow by another 50%. Soon, out of ten people you know, one may depend on federal assistance for daily survival.

Despite tax credits that have created a rush of purchases this spring, housing is in just as bad shape. During Great Depression I, home prices dropped some 15% from their pre-depression peak (achieved in 1925). In Great Depression II, housing is down at least 30% from the pre-depression peak (achieved in 2005), with some markets down more than 50%.

So, many of the people expected to keep making mortgage payments as they eat tuna fish to stay alive will be paying double their home’s resale value. This is a tremendous incentive to walk away, with disastrous consequences for the country’s social fabric in these trying times. Empty homes breed crime and vandalism, encouraging more to flee in a negative feedback loop. Moreover, the many ‘walkaways’ may create a class of Americans with ruined credit – right when many employers have started checking credit scores before hiring.

Even more worrisome, the present drop in home prices is against a backdrop of price inflation. In Great Depression I, our grandparents may have lost value in their home, but everyday goods (milk, diapers, automobiles, etc.) got cheaper at the same time. That made their savings ‘cushion’ deeper when they needed it most. Today, as home equity (now our main store of savings) declines, prices for consumer goods are rising. It’s a tight squeeze indeed.

From jobs to food to the roofs over our heads, the current period of economic turmoil is at least as bad as the First Great Depression, whether or not the financial media wishes to acknowledge it. The main difference is that unlike in the ’30s, the US dollar is now the world’s fiat reserve currency, so we are able to push our problems overseas for awhile. The plight of the rural Chinese is really our plight – we are living lavishly on the wealth they create. Were they to quit this dastardly arrangement, the full effects of Great Depression II would be felt in America.

By contrast, in Great Depression I, the US was on the gold standard like everyone else, which forced us to live within our means. This, in turn, made it easier to recognize that the economy was in decline and changes had to be made.

Unfortunately, because of the responses of the Administration and the Federal Reserve, which I believe to be deeply misguided, I remain concerned that Great Depression II could develop into something far more devastating than its predecessor, something that other countries in the world have experienced but was thought impossible in the United States: a hyperinflationary depression. As bad as the current downturn has been, inflation would make it immeasurably worse. It would require an honest accounting of the problems we face today to avert the disaster we see coming tomorrow.

Neeraj Chaudhary is an Investment Consultant in the Los Angeles branch of Euro Pacific Capital. He shares Peter Schiff’s views on the US dollar, the importance of the gold standard, and the rise of Asia as an economic power. He holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Previously, I wrote about “America’s Ridiculous Toy Money”, as pennies and nickels become worth more than their face value.  While I warned that the end result will be inflation by the printing press, the short term cannot be predicted.  Currency crises always involves psychological events.   Last week I attended a speech by a member of the Philadelphia FED and he was careful to note the true primary short-term danger from the Greece bailout was psychological loss of confidence in government’s paper currencies.  This is all due to the insanity of unbacked paper money and the penchant for politicians and central bankers to print whatever is needed to fund their pet programs and undisciplined bureaucratic and military spending.

The below video, MELTUP, was placed together by the National Inflation Association, so of course by default they are primary concerned with warning about inflation.  Feel free to leave any comments or questions below.  I have previously written about the gold and silver markets in “The Summers Gold Price Suppression Scheme” last year, and this topic is covered in the campaign’s Sound Money and Jobs plank.

Please also remember that constant prosperity through the credit of a warfare-welfare state is no more possible than constant peace through heroin injections.

“The current European debt crisis likely will not end until the euro collapses as a currency and takes the entire European Union with it.”

~ Dennis Gartman, hedge fund manager and writer of The Gartman Letter

I was just in Greece, where the stupidity and venality of the political class are in full view.

The coming repudiation of Greek debt and the credit contagion that will spread among the weaker members of the European Union, including the UK, will ultimately slop over onto the U.S. But while we wait, the process will bring us the answer to a long-simmering question. Will the European Union be a supra-state ruling the formerly independent nations of Europe or will it be a confederation of quasi-independent sovereign nations?

The Eurocrat elites want a union of European nations with one central bank, one currency and just one flag that really matters, all molded to fit the American model. I believe Europe would be far better off as a confederation of sovereign states that allows competition among individual national currencies. Some countries might even revert to backing their national currency with gold. It’s amazing how responsible institutions become when they’re forced to compete.

Even with national currencies, there still would be room for the euro, which the European Central Bank might make convertible into gold. Remember, Germany knows more about the catastrophe of runaway sovereign debt and currency collapse than any other nation in the West, and today they lead Europe and the European Union.

Although the euro has lost 16% of its value in the last 120 days, I expect it to survive the sovereign debt crisis. But the euro zone may shrink as Greece and the other fiscally weak governments replace the euro with national currencies that they can inflate whenever convenient. That would leave the euro as the currency of choice for a few strong, wealthy and fiscally conservative nations like Germany – the countries most likely to welcome a gold-backed currency.

We are now living through the violent end of the age of fiat paper money and thoughtless government debt. In the future, the desire for a secure store of value and medium of exchange is going to force currency competition. Even the U.S. dollar, following hyperinflation and a run on our American national debt, could be reborn as a gold-backed currency.

But the transition will be full of hazards that could touch you in a very painful way. Where will bankrupt Washington get the gold to provide a credible cushion for a new currency following a hyperinflationary collapse? The special hazard for American citizens is that the government will get the gold it needs by taking it from them.

But between now and then, prepare for some tough times, and expect periods of dollar strength vs. the euro and even the Swiss franc. There is no official link between the franc and the euro, but the euro tugs on the decisions of the Swiss National Bank, since Switzerland trades predominately with the EU countries. The Swiss franc won’t move as violently down and up as the euro’s big swings, but it will track the general direction.

Americans should use their recently stronger dollars to add to holdings of Swiss francs, of securely stored offshore gold and of mining shares, along with some Asian investments. With trillions in unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, Washington’s debt load is far greater than the burden that is now crushing the governments of Greece and the other PIIGS countries. The dollar’s current strength will prove transient.

Eventually the sovereign debt crisis will also come to the U.K. and then to the U.S., with disastrous results. The tragedy in Greece today is just a glimpse of what will happen to the sovereign debt of the United States. It will come to America, and it will come on its own schedule, so be prepared.

This article originally appeared in “Swiss Confidential.”

May 19, 2010

Ron Holland [send him mail] is a contributing editor to the Swiss Mountain Vision Newsletter and Swiss Confidential published by Appenzeller Business Press.