This morning Ron Paul appeared for an interview on the state of the economy and the Goldman Sachs “bailout” on CNN “American Morning”.
As usual Dr. Paul defends the free market even when asked rather convoluted questions about “how much” the government should support the market. I found the interview a bit odd. In that both the host and Paul were trying to find some kind of middle ground between a government managed economy and a free market position. The common point implied that the government shouldn’t be bailing out these big Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs yet they continue to use tax payer money to do so.
Check out the video below. NOTE: The audio/video sync appears to be off as is custom on some videos processed by Youtube.
BETHLEHEM, PA – US Congressional Candidate Jake Towne related Thursday to a group of Moravian College students that the government’s stimulus plan simply isn’t working in the Lehigh Valley. He also covered the basic economic reasons behind the failure and a better alternative.
While economic planners predict the end of downturn in Q4 2010 and the creation of 3.675 million jobs, Recovery.gov demonstrates that only 0.030 million jobs have been “created/saved” since the plan began in Q1 2009. Only 495.2 jobs are reported as “created/saved” in all of Pennsylvania. including zero Lehigh Valley jobs and $0 spent. Out of the $2.05 billion allotted to Pennsylvania, only 0.15% has been allotted to the Lehigh Valley, or $3.2 million.
To date, Recovery.gov reports zero Lehigh Valley jobs “created/saved” and $0 spent. The allotted funds for the $3.2 million are:
$154,817 allotted to Advanced Environmental Solutions for soil and groundwater contamination testing
$1,129,049 to the City of Allentown for Homelessness Prevention and Rapid Re-Housing
$737,917 allotted to the City of Allentown for Community Development Block Grant
$687,480 to the City of Bethlehem for Homelessness Prevention and Rapid Re-Housing
$449,326 to the City of Bethlehem for Community Development Block Grant. Funds allocated to provide lighting on 4th Street and a 12-foot pedestrian and bicycle path on a former railroad line.
Ever wonder what happened to that sense of hope and change that most of the voters in the United States were swept up by last fall?
America does need“hope.” America does need “change.”
However, the mainstream Republican and Democratic party machines are both repeating like bad records – “morespending,moretaxes,morewar,more debt.”
If you flip the record, all you hear is “lessliberty,fewerjobs,lessprosperity.”
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider a sound money and slashing federal spending?
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider auditing and cutting back the powers of the ruinous FED?
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider destroying theIMMORALandUNNECESSARY federal income tax?
Whydoesn’tAmerica consider a different foreign policy – where there is third choice besides bombing or economic sanctions? Why not replace the blowback our foreign policy has resulted in with a little love and peaceful trade?
While all the talk at present is about economic corners turned and markets charging ahead, no one is paying much notice to an American economy deteriorating before our eyes. These myopic commentators seem to be simply moving past the now almost-universally held conclusion that before the crash of 2008, our economy was on an unsustainable course. If these imbalances had been corrected, then perhaps I too would be joining in the euphoria. But evidence abounds that we have not veered at all from that dangerous path.
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending as a percentage of U.S. GDP has risen to 71%, a post-World War II record. This level is notably higher than other wealthy industrialized countries, and vastly higher than the levels sustained by China and other emerging economies. At the same time, our industrial output is contracting, our trade deficit is expanding once again (after contracting earlier in the year), and our savings rate is plummeting (after an early year surge).
The data confirms that government stimuli are worsening the structural imbalances underlying our economy. The recent ‘rebound’ in GDP is not resulting from increased economic output, but merely from the fact that we are borrowing more than ever. That is precisely how we got ourselves into this mess. An economy cannot grow indefinitely by borrowing more than it produces. Not only is such a course untenable, but the added debt ensures a deeper recession when the bills come due.
This soon-to-be-called depression will not end until the pendulum of consumer spending habits swings violently in the other direction. This will be a jarring change, but it is the splash of cold water that we need to return our economy to viability. I believe that consumer spending as a share of GDP will need to temporarily contract to roughly 50% of GDP, before eventually moving toward its historic mean of 65%. Such a move would indicate a restoration of our personal savings, a decline in borrowing and trade deficits, and an increased industrial output. That would be a real recovery.
In the meantime, the higher the spending percentage climbs, the more painful the ultimate decline becomes.
It doesn’t matter how many times you’ve sent Congress a letter on a given issue, or even if you sent one yesterday — every new fact we give you is a new opportunity to tell Congress what you want. Seize the opportunity!
by John Browne – Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital
Earlier this year, I predicted that the 2009 rally in U.S. stocks could bring the Dow Jones Index as high as 10,000. It looks like that level has been achieved. If, at this point, the index reverses course, I would have made a fairly good prediction.
However, it is important to get beyond the charts and look at the fundamentals. The furious six-month rally in the stock market has certainly not been mirrored by the economy as a whole. Instead, the country remains in recession, with unemployment continuing to rise and corporate earnings continuing to decline. This has pushed up trading multiples to the point that where value is now a distant memory. How could the stock markets have recovered so strongly in the face of economic recession?
First, this rally is mostly about the financial sector. The U.S. government decided that, no matter what the cost to the citizen, the major banks had to be saved. Bank losses were transferred to public books and unprecedented funds were showered on the banks to keep them solvent. Bank borrowing costs were reduced to near zero and, for the first time, interest was paid on reserves held at the Fed. Many of these banks were designated as ‘too big to fail,’ so they became a nearly risk-free bet.
The result: bank profits skyrocketed. Just today, JP Morgan reported that profits surged sevenfold from the second to the third quarter of this year! In fact, over the past six months, stock performance of financial sector firms was 66% better than the S&P 500 as a whole.
Second, the rally is mostly inevitable bounce. In the third quarter of 2008, in the face of collapsing stock and commodity markets, investors piled into cash instruments such as Treasuries. However, once the crisis appeared to pass, the same investors fled these zero-return ‘investments’ back into corporate debt, and then equities. Such massive fund flows have provided the tide upon which the current rally is based.
This morning in London the gold price hit an all-time high in non-inflation-adjusted dollars of $1047.
While some who hold gold might be rejoicing, I do not view this as good news at all. The campaign still has plenty of people to reach in this district, and may run out of time since we certainly do not have the funds to launch a major ad campaign.
The all-time high in the gold price is a warning of dire times to come as it merely indicates that the dollar’s purchasing power is at an all-time low. The next phase of the dollar crisis may be on the doorstep.
For those of you who would shout “au contraire!!” and are excited about the stock markets gains since the spring, please take a look at the following chart. Note that maximums in the P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio often precede market crashes, as the stock is overvalued as compared to its dividends/earnings. This S&P 500 chart is from 1935-present.
Notice anything strange? We are way out of historical means. I do not believe that such absurdly high P/E ratios are possible to maintain over the long-term.
The campaign is extremely busy and continuing to pick up steam, but we need your help to spread the word. The above should not be taken as investment advice, merely facts.
As mentioned previously, the founders of Liberty Maven attended the FFF-sponsored Robert Higgs talk at George Mason University earlier this week. I agree that this was one of the most intriguing and entertaining speeches I’ve been to. Watch it here:
by John Browne – Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital
On October 6th, The Independent newspaper of London set off shock-waves around the world with a report that secret meetings were held between the OPEC states, China, Russia, and others, in which the participants charted a course toward a new world reserve currency. Not surprisingly, the U.S. dollar nosedived on the news. The rout was only stemmed by Saudi and Chinese officials publicly denying the story.
Whether or not this particular reporter got all his facts straight is largely immaterial. If such meetings have not been occurring, they soon will be. All the ingredients to stir financial discontent in these nations are present. It’s not a question of if we will move to a post-dollar world, but when.
What an interesting discussion Judge Napolitano had with the wonderful Robert Higgs on Freedom Watch last Friday. They discuss how Barack Obama is more easily compared to Herbert Hoover than FDR.
Liberty Maven
Ever wonder what happened to that sense of hope and change that most of the voters in the United States were swept up by last fall?
by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of 
For those of you who would shout “au contraire!!” and are excited about the stock markets gains since the spring, please take a look at the following chart. Note that maximums in the P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio often precede market crashes, as the stock is overvalued as compared to its dividends/earnings. This
by John Browne – Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital
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