Ron Paul took his anti-Fed, anti-regulatory, pro-transparency message to the CNBC Squawk Box crew today. This is another winning appearance from Ron Paul. He outlines his views fairly well and makes extremely good arguments for his side of the Fed transparency debate.
His appearance was so positive that they end up telling him that he should come on the show as a special guest (as they have from time to time) for the full 2 hours of the show. Paul makes a joke in response. Check it out below.
The GDP numbers out yesterday, which showed economic growth at 3.5% in the third quarter, brought a deafening chorus from public and private economists who all agreed that the recession is officially over. With such a strong report, they are happy to tell us that not only has the Fat Lady finished her aria, but she has left the building and is sipping champagne in the bath. As usual, it falls on me to rain on the parade.
Even the giddiest commentators admit that the upside GDP surprise resulted almost entirely from government interventions. But, by pushing up public and private debt, expanding government, deepening trade deficits, and pushing down savings rates, these interventions have succeeded only in putting our economy back on an unsustainable path of borrowing and spending. Accordingly, they have prevented the rebalancing necessary for long-term health. Could there be a simpler illustration of trading long-term pain for short-term gain?
Rather than asking these pre-K economists to make such a three dimensional leap, it may be easier just to give them a brief history lesson.
During the decade that corresponds to the Great Depression, annual GNP expanded for six years and contracted for four. After nose-diving in the early years of the decade, GNP turned positive in 1934 and then logged three more years of solid growth (the four year average annual growth rate was 8.5%). But does anyone really believe the Great Depression ended in 1934, when the economy first stopped contracting? Unemployment reached 19% in 1938, nearly the peak of the entire Depression, almost a full decade after the stock market crashed! Why will we be so much luckier this time around?
Ron Paul was interviewed by Tavis Smiley on his PBS show last night. I remember really enjoying Smiley’s questioning and demeanor throughout his questioning during one of the GOP primary debates during the campaign of 2008. A debate that some of us here at Liberty Maven attended.
In this interview they discuss the U.S. foreign policy in Afghanistan, Ron Paul’s new book “End the Fed“, and how the Fed can be audited and eventually abolished.
“Educate and inform the whole mass of the people. Enable them to see that it is their interest to preserve peace and order, and they will preserve them. And it required no very high degree of education to convince them of this. They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty.” – Thomas Jefferson, 1787
After the lecture from LBCCS founder Paul Fiske who related how our founding fathers viewed education, Ryan Burgett, chairman of LBCCS and I (as a member of LBCCS) took questions and there was one question I was unable to answer without a projector, which was the breakdown of spending by the federal Department of Education, which is below or can beviewed online here.I also gave a short synopsis of the history and issues I have with this Department.
This morning Ron Paul appeared for an interview on the state of the economy and the Goldman Sachs “bailout” on CNN “American Morning”.
As usual Dr. Paul defends the free market even when asked rather convoluted questions about “how much” the government should support the market. I found the interview a bit odd. In that both the host and Paul were trying to find some kind of middle ground between a government managed economy and a free market position. The common point implied that the government shouldn’t be bailing out these big Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs yet they continue to use tax payer money to do so.
Check out the video below. NOTE: The audio/video sync appears to be off as is custom on some videos processed by Youtube.
While all the talk at present is about economic corners turned and markets charging ahead, no one is paying much notice to an American economy deteriorating before our eyes. These myopic commentators seem to be simply moving past the now almost-universally held conclusion that before the crash of 2008, our economy was on an unsustainable course. If these imbalances had been corrected, then perhaps I too would be joining in the euphoria. But evidence abounds that we have not veered at all from that dangerous path.
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending as a percentage of U.S. GDP has risen to 71%, a post-World War II record. This level is notably higher than other wealthy industrialized countries, and vastly higher than the levels sustained by China and other emerging economies. At the same time, our industrial output is contracting, our trade deficit is expanding once again (after contracting earlier in the year), and our savings rate is plummeting (after an early year surge).
The data confirms that government stimuli are worsening the structural imbalances underlying our economy. The recent ‘rebound’ in GDP is not resulting from increased economic output, but merely from the fact that we are borrowing more than ever. That is precisely how we got ourselves into this mess. An economy cannot grow indefinitely by borrowing more than it produces. Not only is such a course untenable, but the added debt ensures a deeper recession when the bills come due.
This soon-to-be-called depression will not end until the pendulum of consumer spending habits swings violently in the other direction. This will be a jarring change, but it is the splash of cold water that we need to return our economy to viability. I believe that consumer spending as a share of GDP will need to temporarily contract to roughly 50% of GDP, before eventually moving toward its historic mean of 65%. Such a move would indicate a restoration of our personal savings, a decline in borrowing and trade deficits, and an increased industrial output. That would be a real recovery.
In the meantime, the higher the spending percentage climbs, the more painful the ultimate decline becomes.
by John Browne – Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital
Earlier this year, I predicted that the 2009 rally in U.S. stocks could bring the Dow Jones Index as high as 10,000. It looks like that level has been achieved. If, at this point, the index reverses course, I would have made a fairly good prediction.
However, it is important to get beyond the charts and look at the fundamentals. The furious six-month rally in the stock market has certainly not been mirrored by the economy as a whole. Instead, the country remains in recession, with unemployment continuing to rise and corporate earnings continuing to decline. This has pushed up trading multiples to the point that where value is now a distant memory. How could the stock markets have recovered so strongly in the face of economic recession?
First, this rally is mostly about the financial sector. The U.S. government decided that, no matter what the cost to the citizen, the major banks had to be saved. Bank losses were transferred to public books and unprecedented funds were showered on the banks to keep them solvent. Bank borrowing costs were reduced to near zero and, for the first time, interest was paid on reserves held at the Fed. Many of these banks were designated as ‘too big to fail,’ so they became a nearly risk-free bet.
The result: bank profits skyrocketed. Just today, JP Morgan reported that profits surged sevenfold from the second to the third quarter of this year! In fact, over the past six months, stock performance of financial sector firms was 66% better than the S&P 500 as a whole.
Second, the rally is mostly inevitable bounce. In the third quarter of 2008, in the face of collapsing stock and commodity markets, investors piled into cash instruments such as Treasuries. However, once the crisis appeared to pass, the same investors fled these zero-return ‘investments’ back into corporate debt, and then equities. Such massive fund flows have provided the tide upon which the current rally is based.
Congressman Charlie Dent is taking no proactive actions to prevent a collapse in the purchasing power of the dollar. Instead, his actions are worsening the situation.
At the last town hall Congressman Charlie Dent gave on September 21, I attended so that I could hear what he and our fellow citizens had to say. I also delivered a paper copy of my plan for the Open Office. The Congressman gave me a chance to ask a question, which I commend him for. I did not have a chance to start my camera to record my question, but it was done in a very polite manner, and went something like:
“Congressman Dent, since 1913 the Federal Reserve has destroyed well over 95% of the purchasing power of the dollar. I am very concerned about the future of our currency, the dollar. You just talked about saving money by not voting for the health care bill, but a couple months ago you voted for HR 3081, which awarded close to $50 billion in overseas foreign military and economic aid. HR 3081 gave over $2 billion in military aid to Israel, $1 billion in military aid to Egypt, $150 million in military aid to Jordan, $60 million in military aid to Colombia among many other nations. And just last week youapproved to spend $4.125 billion on government-sponsored car technology research in HR 3246. My question to you is this: what are you doing right now to prevent a collapse in the dollar?”
“The question is what am I doing right now. Specifically is not spend money unnecessarily. The money I am talking about is the $787 billion stimulus plan, it cost over a trillion dollars, which I voted against. It overspends. It borrows too much. It spends too much. It delivers far too little. Now, that is just one very specific example of what we can do to help us.
“I am very concerned about inflationary pressures at some point. The deficits that are being run up right now in this administration I think are unsustainable. I think are unsustainable. We are talking deficits in excess of 12%, 13% of gross national product. Now it’s true this country has run up deficits throughout much of its modern history. In the depression we did. Second world war we certainly did. And since the second world war we have generally – we have often run deficits. The worst deficit we have had this year was in the early ’80s in 1981 or 1982 of a deficit of about 6% of gross national product during the Reagan years and a Democratic Congress. Even during the war our deficits were 20% of gross national product but today, I think largely because of this stimulus in particular. I think that we are seeing, again, an unsustainable debt level.
“Here I have now [holds up copy of HR 3200, the old Obama health care bill]. This is one reason why I oppose this bill because what it does is further drive our deficits well into the future. And its not just the first 10 years. Its the second 10 years. The federal government does a lousy job of projecting long-term entitlement costs. We don’t do a good job of it. We usually say, OK, Medicare 1965 is going to cost whatever was projected. It has cost far greater than that. We just don’t do a good job of it. I believe that the costs here in this legislation [Obamacare bill] are significantly understated.
Slides 4-36 of the below presentation have been presented to several groups around the district for educational purposes. Although you are missing my critical narrative and explanations, I invite you to take a look. If you do disagree or find something new, check my sourcing and citations.
While the hour-long presentation is of course only a snapshot, or a look at the critical pieces of puzzle, I emphasize the importance of the gold market, and view the housing crisis as merely a symptom of the causes – excess FED inflation and artificially low interest rates that were held too low for too long. The irony is not lost that currently the FED interest rates is roughly 0.15%, far lower than previously. In the interests of time and for simplicity, I omitted the Treasury market almost entirely – just a brief mention in the slide on the national debt. The Treasury market is definitely also quite critical.
Glenn Beck had Ron Paul on his radio show this morning to discuss Paul’s new book “End the Fed“. The discussion turned toward predicting what America will look like within the next 3-5 years. Unsurprisingly both Beck and Paul do not have a rosy prognostication. In fact their discussion was downright scary.
The discussion lasts about 14 minutes. Following the interview Beck reiterates that he doesn’t agree with Ron Paul on some things, but when it comes to the Fed Glenn says he is “Dead Right.” Following that Beck goes into a discussion on foreign policy as it relates to Afghanistan.
Listen to the audio below.
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Liberty Maven
by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of 
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At the last town hall Congressman Charlie Dent gave on September 21, I attended so that I could hear what he and our fellow citizens had to say. I also delivered a paper copy of 
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