Liberty Maven

John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital

Last weekend, the G-20 finance ministers met in South Korea to find areas of agreement in preparation for the main G-20 gathering in November. The Chinese rebuffed renewed American pleas for them to revalue their yuan. They rejected Secretary Geithner’s suggestion of a four percent cap on current account surpluses. However, in return for accepting America’s continued dollar debasement, the Chinese did agree to “look into” a revaluation of the yuan and the management of trade surpluses. They also agreed to an international self-policing regime to curb currency manipulation. This ‘one-sided’ compromise was hailed in the Western media as a triumph for Mr. Geithner. The US stock markets and dollar rallied. All looked good for the election season in November.

Unfortunately, compromises are never one-sided; they are only construed as such. Though the reporting failed to emphasize it, Mr. Geithner actually agreed to a massive shift of monetary power in exchange for China’s empty concessions. The shareholdings and board composition of the huge and powerful International Monetary Fund (IMF) have now been shifted. China will now become the third largest shareholder of the IMF and the developing economies will get a six percent larger voting share. Two European states will lose their seats on the IMF’s board in favor of developing countries.

Meanwhile, China, supported by Russia, India, and even Brazil, continued to lobby hard for the US dollar’s privileged role as the international reserve currency to be replaced by a wide basket of currencies and gold. To this end, the IMF has recently been given additional “emergency” lending facilities. These could be used in a coming sovereign default crisis to ‘bail out’ Western countries, at which point they would be unable to resist global economic governance under the guise of the reformed IMF.

In short, Secretary Geithner’s “victory” at the G-20 was one only King Pyrrhus could love.

But the blame cannot be laid entirely with Mr. Geithner. The fact that he left the meeting at least saving a bit of face for his delegation is a monumental achievement, considering the dismal condition of the US economy.

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Michael Pento, Senior Economist of Euro Pacific Capital

When the euro hit a low of $1.1917 against the US dollar on June 7th, 2010, the airwaves crackled with assertions that the European common currency, beset by Greek debt problems and intra-union discord, was destined to trade at parity with the greenback. They were wrong. Since then, the euro has risen over 17% against the dollar, hitting $1.3961 today. The current upswing, delivered courtesy of the Fed, has at least temporarily silenced the euro’s critics. It should also serve to impugn the notion that the US dollar holds a permanent position as the world’s reserve currency.

To be clear, I have always felt that the euro is just another flawed fiat currency. However, since its inception in the 1990s, it has earned my begrudging respect. Most analysts have reservations about the euro, but I see cause for some confidence.

Together, the 27 countries that comprise the European Union represent the largest single market in the world. Its GDP on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis was $16.5 trillion in 2009, which is greater than the $14.2 trillion US economy in that year. The economies of the 16 countries in which the euro is legal tender produced a GDP of about $10.5 trillion on a PPP basis. That is equivalent to 74% of US total output in ’09. Therefore, the economy of Europe, however measured, is similar in size and scope to that of the US and should be viewed with the same gravitas.

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by John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital

As the recession and resultant stimulus packages add to higher unemployment and increasing public-sector deficits, the government is seeking to boost the value of overseas earnings that are accrued by US corporations. To aid in this effort, the Fed is being pressured to erode the value of the US dollar, thereby making foreign sales more lucrative in nominal terms. But this form of stealth protectionism will fail just as surely as more overt trade barriers.

Like all commodities, the relative value of currencies is influenced by reward, risk, and future expectations.

The interest rate earned by holding a particular currency represents the ‘reward’ end of the equation. Assuming similar risk profiles, money tends to flow towards the currencies with higher interest rates.

Relative risk is in the eye of the beholder and often is difficult to quantify. In the main, investors view a nation’s balance of payments deficit as a major risk factor in evaluating the relative value of its currency.

Another long-term measure of risk is government debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If a large national trade deficit is accompanied by a relatively large debt-to-GDP ratio, the level of risk is increased.

Given the current state of the global economy, it should be clear to all that the US dollar is being priced higher than is warranted and the Chinese yuan is priced lower.

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by Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals and author of the hit economic fable How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes

Much of the content of the latest Fed statement, released on September 21, echoes the central bank’s previous post-credit crunch pronouncements: there is still too much slack in the economy, interest rates are still going to be near-zero for an “extended period,” and the Fed will continue to use payments from its Treasury purchases to buy yet more Treasuries.

But this recent statement uses a new turn of phrase that should have Americans very upset. The Fed says that “measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate.” Though the wording treads lightly, it should not be taken lightly. It may signal the final push toward dollar collapse.

The Fed’s dual mandate, since an amendment in 1977, has been to promote “price stability” and “maximum employment.” While often discussed as if both goals are complementary facets of one mandate, they tend to have been at odds during every recession since the Great Depression.

The problem is that central banks tend to keep interest rates too low for too long (usually to create a feeling of prosperity credited to the government), which then causes major asset bubbles. When the bubbles pop, there is a period of high unemployment during which prices are supposed to fall. Then, the central bank must choose between boosting short-term employment through inflation or defending price stability by allowing assets to return to a reasonable market value. Aside from the early 1980s chairmanship of Paul Volcker, the Fed has always chosen more inflation.

But they’ve never admitted it.

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by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of the new best-selling economic fable, How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes

Since the US economy has failed to recover as widely predicted, pressure on the Federal Reserve to conjure a solution has increased. In fact, the Fed now faces the hardest choices in its history. It can either redouble its past efforts to re-inflate America’s bubble economy (risking the destruction of the US dollar) or it can stop pumping and let the economy deflate to a self-sustaining level. Unfortunately, both choices guarantee severe economic pain – but only one offers the possibility of ultimate success.

Today’s news that the economy lost 95,000 jobs in September confirms that record doses of stimulus have failed to create a real recovery. The loss of 159,000 government jobs in the month could have been a positive if those lost positions had been replaced by wealth-generating private sector jobs. But the 65,000 jobs generated by businesses didn’t come close. Worse still, most of these jobs came from the goods-consuming service sector rather than the goods-producing manufacturing sector (which lost another 6,000 jobs). The unemployment rate has now been above 9.5% for 14 consecutive months, the longest such streak since monthly records began in 1948. More importantly, the real unemployment rate, which factors in discouraged and under-employed workers, rose from 16.7% to 17.1%.

Armed with this weak jobs report, the Fed seems poised to make good on its plan for other round of quantitative easing (in English: printing money). Recent statement from top Fed governors have made that sentiment clear. Apparently they feel that they must do something, even though Fed inaction would be far better for the economy. At a time when we should be trusting the markets to grind out three yards in a cloud of dust, we have put our faith in the Fed’s ability to fling a Hail Mary pass, even though all previous attempts have failed.

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by John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital

Over the last two weeks, seemingly good economic news offered some shreds of optimism to a stock market that was desperate for a pick-me-up.The week before last, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the US recession had ended back in June 2009. At the beginning of last week, news came in that month-on-month retail sales had risen by 0.4 percent. Combined with successful government debt auctions in the eurozone, increasing expectations that Republicans will take back the House (thereby blunting the leftward drift of Washington), and hopes that a new round of quantitative easing will pump up growth, mainstream analysts are developing a feeling of near-euphoria.

Although it hard to begrudge the punch drunk for grasping at a little hope, investing is a dispassionate endeavor that calls for close and realistic analysis. In that spirit, let’s dig deeper into the recent ‘good news.’

First, the single month’s rise in retail sales was a blip on what has been a long-term downtrend. Furthermore, retail sales in August typically get a large boost from seasonal ‘back to school’ spending. This year, retail sales were boosted further by temporary tax incentives and vendor discounts.

Second, the successful auction of debt from worrisome eurozone countries, like Ireland, only served to further camouflage the ongoing risk of sovereign default by these states. None of them have committed to a comprehensive program of austerity and market liberalization – Ireland maintains a ‘too big to fail’ doctrine while Greece is on the verge of riots from its so-far modest efforts at privatization. None of the PIIGS would have had successful bond sales if Germany hadn’t been pressured into becoming a ‘sovereign of last resort’ for the whole currency area.

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by Michael Pento, Senior Economist of Euro Pacific Capital

There is wide agreement among economists and the financial media that our lackluster economic performance stems from continued “deleveraging” among consumers and businesses. Although it is certainly true that after decades of overly speculative borrowing, individuals and corporations are paying down debt, rebuilding their savings, and generally repairing their respective balance sheets. But these activities cannot be faulted for our economic malaise.

In fact, as a country, we haven’t deleveraged at ALL. All the moves made by the private sector have been vastly outpaced by the federal government’s efforts to add leverage to the economy. The net result is that we are much more indebted now than we were before the recession began; as a result, we are digging ourselves even faster into debt.

The good news is that households paid down debt for the 9th quarter in a row. In Q2, they deleveraged at a 2.3% annual rate, as their total debt outstanding dropped from $13.52 trillion to $13.45 trillion from Q1. That’s still around 92% of GDP, which is way up from the 48% level in 1980, but the direction is positive. Ultimately, the message here could not be clearer: American households have decided – either voluntarily or involuntarily – that it is in their best interest to quit borrowing money and reduce their debt levels in order to reconcile their balance sheets. The bad news is that most economists view this as a pernicious tendency.

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by Michael Pento, Senior Economist of Euro Pacific Capital

In forecasting the consequences of current economic policy, many pundits are downplaying the risks associated with the surging national debt and the rapid expansion of marketable Treasury securities. Their comfort stems from the belief that a staggering debt burden will be manageable as long as interest rates remain extremely low; and, as they believe the Fed is in complete control of setting rates across the yield curve, they see no danger of rates ever rising past the point of comfort. Those who subscribe to this fairy tale forget that, in real life, there are many more hands on the interest rate steering wheel.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the 2010 deficit will exceed $1.3 trillion and total US debt now stands at $13.4 trillion (92% of GDP). That’s a lot of debt that needs floating. Yet, the 10-year note is yielding 2.8% — which is 4.5 points below its 40-year average of 7.3%! Experience teaches that even moderately long-term investors should be expecting rising rates. Regardless of the extreme and obvious misalignment of fundamentals and bond prices, the mantra from the dollar shills remains firm: “The US dollar will always be the world’s reserve currency, and the US bond market will always be regarded as the safe-haven depository for global savings.”

With interest rates having been so low for so long, it’s understandable that many people have forgotten that central banks are not ultimately in control of interest rates. It is true that the Fed can be highly influential across the yield curve and can be especially effective in controlling the short end. But, in the end, the free market has the last word on the cost of money.

Although the Fed has certainly created enough new dollars to send prices higher, recessionary forces are, for now, disguising the evidence of runaway inflation. But when inflation finally erupts into the daylight, it will be impossible for borrowing costs to stay low. No one can realistically be expected to loan money below the rate of inflation. To attract buyers, the Treasury will have to offer a real rate of return.

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by Neeraj Chaudhary, Investment Consultant in the Los Angeles branch of Euro Pacific Capital

A few weeks ago Nouriel Roubini, widely regarded as one of the more pessimistic figures on Wall Street, made headlines by raising his forecasted likelihood of a “double dip recession” to a terrifying 40%. The vast majority of “mainstream” economists (although I would argue Roubini himself is part of that pack) described these predictions as far too gloomy.

Although there are some dubious current statistics that the desperate could cite to make an optimistic case, many simply are falling back on the extreme rarity of past “double dips.” But, in an unprecedented time, the lack of historical precedent hardly seems to matter. What is far more significant is a raft of new data that point downward.  As the high from last year’s monetary and fiscal stimulus wears off, there is a good deal of evidence that shows the U.S. economy plunging into an abyss.

Unemployment continues to batter the nation. Last week alone, the Labor Department announced that initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a mere 473,000. While US stock index futures rallied briefly on this news, these numbers are not far off the peak of the 2001-2002 recession.

We’ve spent trillions of dollars on bailouts, stimulus programs, and Cash-for-You-Name-It programs, and we still have nearly half a million new people filing for unemployment every week. As Billy Joel would have asked:  Is that all we get for our money?

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Libertarian Party press release:

WASHINGTON – Looking toward the 9/12 Tea Party events in Washington, DC, Libertarian Party executive director Wes Benedict issued the following warning to Tea Partiers: “Republicans are trying to fool you again.”

“There are two kinds of Tea Partiers,” said Benedict. “One kind is so blinded by its hatred of Obama and Democrats that it cannot see fault with Republicans. It’s the other kind the Libertarian Party is reaching out to.”

Libertarian Party staff and volunteers will participate in the Washington, DC Tea Party events on September 12. They will distribute flyers pointing out how the Top 10 Disasters of the 2009-2010 Obama administration mirror the Top 10 Disasters of the 2001-2008 Bush administration.

Benedict continued, “Libertarians have much in common with Tea Party goals of reducing government spending and taxes. While many Tea Party supporters will admit that George W. Bush’s administration grew government, Libertarians want to remind Tea Partiers about previous Republican administrations that loved big government.

“Republican Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America promised to eliminate the Departments of Education and Energy. Yet once Republicans took control of Congress, they failed even to reduce the spending on those departments.

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