by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit from the Economic Collapse

During President Obama’s high profile visit to China this week, the most frequently discussed, yet least understood, topic was how currency valuations are affecting the economic relationship between the United States and China. The focal problem is the Chinese government’s policy of fixing the value of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar. While many correctly perceive that this ‘peg’ has contributed greatly to the current global imbalances, few fully comprehend the ramifications should that peg be discarded.The common understanding is both incomplete and naive. Most analysts simply see the peg as China’s principal weapon in an economic struggle for global ascendancy. The peg, they argue, offers China a competitive advantage by making its products cheaper in U.S. markets, thus allowing Chinese firms to gobble up market share and steal jobs from U.S. manufacturers. The thought is that were China to allow its currency to rise, American manufactures would regain their lost edge, and both manufacturing firms and the jobs formerly associated with them would return. In this narrative, the struggle centers on the United States’ diminishing leverage in persuading the Chinese to lay down their unfair weaponry. It’s a sympathetic picture, but it tells the wrong story.

While the peg certainly is responsible for much of the world’s problems, its abandonment would cause severe hardship in the United States. In fact, for the U.S., de-pegging would cause the economic equivalent of cardiac arrest. Our economy is currently on life support provided by an endless flow of debt financing from China. These purchases are the means by which China maintains the relative value of its currency against the dollar. As the dollar comes under even more downward pressure, China’s purchases must increase to keep the renminbi from rising. By maintaining the peg, China enables our politicians and citizens to continue spending more than they have and avoiding the hard choices necessary to restore our long-term economic health.

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, when China drops the peg, the immediate benefits will flow to the Chinese, not to Americans. Yes, prices for Chinese goods will rise in the United States – but so will prices for domestic goods. As a corollary, the Chinese will see falling prices across the board. As anyone who has ever been shopping can explain, low prices are a good thing.

In addition, credit will expand in China while it contracts here. When China abandons the peg, it will no longer need to swell its currency reserves by buying Treasuries or other dollar-denominated debt instruments. Other nations will no longer feel the pressure to keep their currencies from rising, so they too could throttle down on their onerous dollar purchases.

As demand falls for both dollars and Treasuries, prices and interest rates in the United States will rise. Rising rates will restrict the flow of credit that is currently financing government and consumer spending. This change will finally force a long overdue decline in borrowing. So, not only will Americans lose access to the consumer credit that funds their current spending, but the things they buy will also get more expensive.

Our short-term loss will be in sharp contrast to the gain felt by foreigners, who will be rewarded with falling consumer prices and a more abundant supply of investment capital. In other words, the American standard of living will fall while that of our trading partners will rise.

However, this does not mean that I want the Chinese to maintain the status quo. In the long run, the U.S. economy will benefit from the abandonment of a system that guarantees our dependency and inevitable downfall. De-pegging will force the hand of U.S. politicians toward pursuing realistic policies. The Chinese will come to their senses eventually because it is in their interest to do so. Meanwhile, the longer the peg is maintained, the more indebted we become, the more out of balance our economy grows, and the more our industrial base shrivels. In short, the longer they wait, the steeper our fall.

A weaker dollar will price many imported products beyond the reach of most Americas, giving our hollowed out manufacturing sector the opportunity to rebound. However, if our industry has any chance of getting off the mat, we must reduce taxes, repeal regulations, reform our cumbersome legal system, and, most importantly, replenish our savings to finance the necessary capital investment.

If we position ourselves to deal with the consequences, tough love from China will provide a path back to genuine economic growth.  However, if our politicians continue to misread the problem and push us deeper in the red, the inevitable ‘rebalancing’ could be truly ruinous.

His appearance was so positive that they end up telling him that he should come on the show as a special guest (as they have from time to time) for the full 2 hours of the show. Paul makes a joke in response. Check it out below.

Economic theory and massive amounts of empirical evidence make a strong case for maintaining the Fed’s independence. When central banks are subjected to political pressure, authorities often pursue excessively expansionary monetary policy in order to lower unemployment in the short run. This produces higher inflation and higher interest rates without lowering unemployment in the long term. This has happened over and over again in the past, not only in the United States but in many other countries throughout the world.

The Fed’s independence is critical to its credibility. During the financial crisis, this credibility allowed the Fed to take extraordinary action to prevent a possible depression without triggering inflation. But eventually the Fed will have to scale back its unprecedented monetary accommodation. When it does move to tighten monetary conditions, it must be allowed to do so without political interference.

This is a tired argument at this point. The bottom line, once again, is that the Fed cannot “maintain its independence” when it is not independent to begin with. It is politicized already and it is plainly obvious to most observers without an axe to grind. The fact that this opinion piece appears in the WSJ at all is evidence in itself of this. It’s always important to consider the sources. The authors of the piece are both “in bed with the Fed”, so to speak.

Anil Kashyup was “an economist for the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System. He currently works as a consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and serves as a member of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and as a Research Associate for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).” His faculty bio page is here.

Frederic Mishkin is a former member of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve (2006-2008). Perhaps more telling is the following juicy bit:

In 2006, Mishkin co-authored a report called “Financial Stability in Iceland”. The report maintained that Iceland’s economic fundamentals were strong. The report was commissioned by the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce in response to critical coverage of the Icelandic economy and certain Icelandic companies in the international business media.

Iceland subsequently experienced a spectacular collapse within a year of Mishkin’s good report.

So, considering the sources, this WSJ opinion piece should be ignored and ostracized as the comments on the article are already showing.

That’s just a little over $30,000 per year.

Clearly the banking lobby is satisfied with Mr. Watt’s performance.

Last Friday, Rep. Ron Paul reported that our Federal Reserve Transparency Act (HR 1207) was “gutted” in Rep. Watt’s subcommittee.

In defense of Rep. Watt, however, it’s not totally his fault. His district is the most obviously gerrymandered in North Carolina, following I-85 like a snake from Charlotte to Winston Salem. It is overwhelmingly Democratic, and his re-election has never been seriously challenged. Why should he represent the people when he is electorally invincible?

While we may not be able to hold Rep. Watt accountable, we can fight back. His attempt to eviscerate HR 1207 must be approved by the full Financial Services committee.

We can block that approval, and restore the original bill. It is especially important that each member of the Financial Services committee hear from their constituents the clear message that Rep. Watt’s proposed changes are unacceptable. And you must act now because . . .

The Committee could meet as soon as today (Wednesday).

Every Representative should receive a message. But if your Representative is on the Financial Services committee, they should also get a polite phone call from you.

Please review the list of committee members to see if your Representative serves on the Financial Services committee.

This is what I wrote to one member of the Committee . . .

You may be aware that Rep. Mel Watt’s subcommittee on monetary policy introduced changes to the Federal Reserve Transparency Act (HR 1207) that restrict inquiry around transactions with foreign central banks, monetary policy deliberations, transactions made under the direction of the Federal Open Market Committee and communications between the Board, the reserve banks, and staff.

These changes have the practical effect of killing the bill, and eliminating the transparency that our economy and financial markets require for stability and sustainable growth.

It is also clear that Rep. Watt does not fear for his re-election, given his willingness to put the narrow interests of the banking industry, his top donors over the last decade, above those of the American people. I’m hoping you will be more responsive to the people.

HR 1207 has over 300 cosponsors in its ORIGINAL form. I trust you will use your influence to remove Rep. Watt’s changes, and bring HR 1207 to a vote on the House floor in its original form.

I’m also sending a copy of this message to my two Senators so that they too will know how important this HR 1207 is to me.

END OF LETTER

You can send your letter to Congress using the DownsizeDC.org Educate the Powerful System.

NOTE: In a video message, Ron Paul indicated that it is especially important that constituents contact the 13 Democrats on the Financial Services committee who already co-sponsored HR 1207, with a VERY polite reminder that you STILL want them to support the ORIGINAL bill, and to resist Mr. Watt’s amendments.

For your convenience, here is that list . . .

Rep. John Adler, NJ (202) 225-4765
Rep. Travis Childers, MS (202) 225-4306
Rep. Steve Driehaus, OH (202) 225-2216
Rep. Alan Grayson, FL (202) 225-2176
Rep. Rubén Hinojosa, TX (202) 225-2531
Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, FL (877) 956-7627
Rep. Dan Maffei, NY (202) 225-3701
Rep. Brad Miller, NC (202) 225-3032
Rep. Walt Minnick, ID (202) 225-6611
Rep. Ed Perlmutter, CO (202)-225-2645
Rep. David Scott, GA (202) 225-2939
Rep. Brad Sherman, CA (202) 225-5911
Rep. Jackie Speier, CA (202) 225-3531

Thank you for being a part of the growing Downsize DC Army,

Dr. William (B.J.) Lawson
Commentator
DownsizeDC.org, Inc.

D o w n s i z e r – D i s p a t c h
is the official email list of DownsizeDC.org, Inc. & Downsize DC Foundation

In this interview they discuss the U.S. foreign policy in Afghanistan, Ron Paul’s new book “End the Fed“, and how the Fed can be audited and eventually abolished.

Watch it in two parts below.

(Thanks to great Minnesota Chris for the videos, check out his blog)

by John Browne – Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital

In a small bit of Washington irony, a government panel convened this week under the guise of ensuring ‘expressive freedom’ on the Internet, while at the same time the Obama Administration put Fox News on notice that ideological rectitude would be a prerequisite for White House engagement.

This heightened wrangling with the media comes at a time when ordinary Americans are rapidly becoming disillusioned with the major parties. Their disgust is evident in innumerable web discussion sites that, for many, have replaced the major media outlets as the primary source of information. In its focus to keep control of the conversation, the Administration is seeking to disguise the fact that the ‘change’ Mr. Obama promised in the election is unlikely to materialize.

Wishful thinking of the Nobel committee aside, what we have seen thus far from Obama is simply more of what had been delivered by the prior administration.

Obama renewed our military commitment to the quagmire that is Afghanistan. But he is hesitating now that the United Nations has uncovered fraud in the recent presidential elections there. Whether or not one believes the war is winnable, this type of hollow chest-pounding did not help anyone under G. W. Bush, and will not under Obama.

Domestically, Obama has re-enforced the doctrine of ‘too big to fail,’ which essentially involves ’socializing’ the costs of reckless Wall Street failures while ‘privatizing’ the gains made through their use of taxpayer funds. As a result of this policy, elite investment bankers are now seeing bonuses that rival those at the bubble’s peak. As an answer to Bush’s publicly funded rescue of GM and Chrysler, Obama gave some $10 billion to the very trade union that had brought Detroit to its knees. In the first nine months of his Administration, Obama has increased the Treasury debt by some 20 percent to almost 100 percent of GDP, or a staggering $12 trillion dollars.

Even facing the vast $104 trillion of additional, ‘off-balance sheet’ government obligations, Obama is pushing ahead with a new Health Bill. This is not even a populist measure, as most Americans are sensibly standing in opposition to this attempt to bankrupt their country. The legislative momentum is wholly provided by a small ideological core of Democrats at the expense of the greater good, a pattern set by Bush and his zealous Republican base.

It is becoming clear, even to Democrats, that Obama doesn’t aim to implement better policies, but to make the public feel better about the same old policies.

Unfortunately for the President, America is a free enterprise, capitalist and right-of-center country that does not take naturally to socialist policies. What is so concerning is that rather than learning this lesson, the White House is trying to silence the voices of opposition.

It is widely accepted that a free press will foster a healthy and vibrant cross section of views. While it is clearly susceptible to hyperbole, Fox News has nevertheless been instrumental in exposing the radical, socialist and even communist backgrounds of a surprising number of advisers and unelected officials close to the President. Their efforts in this regard have served the public.

These revelations about left-of-center tendencies would not have been damaging if the public were indeed in a mood to be led by leftists. If that were the case, the Administration would have dismissed Fox News as a network for conservatives to gripe to themselves. Perhaps the official uproar indicates Obama has noticed that some 50 percent of the Fox News audience is composed of Democrats and Independents.

Certainly, no credence can be given to the official position that the Administration is opposed to deliberate bias. On the other side of the aisle, MSNBC is just as partisan as Fox News, and in many ways functions as the media arm of the Democratic National Committee. Yet the President does not spar with that network. Perhaps he is attacking Fox News in response to MSNBC’s dismally low ratings, proof that the latter network really is just a forum for socialists to gripe to themselves.

At its core, this issue transcends left-right bickering. Politicians across the spectrum are feeling increasingly threatened by an unregulated media. The media is more accountable to the public than politicians, as ratings are measured in real-time, not election cycles. Fox News is benefiting from the reality that Americans believe in limited government, lower taxes, unhampered enterprise and personal responsibility. Although both parties pay lip service to these ideals, their actions reflect a clear belief in more control, less freedom and bigger government. This has led to a deep voter frustration and disenchantment with the two major parties.

It’s common sense that if the President wants to regain voters’ trust, the answer is to listen to their concerns. If investors are moving their wealth overseas, the answer is to become more competitive at home. This feud with Fox News shows that the President has not yet heeded this advice, and, really, would rather not hear it.

For a more in-depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar, read Peter Schiff’s 2008 bestseller “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets” and his newest release “Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit from the Economic Collapse.” Click here to learn more.

More importantly, don’t let the great deals pass you by. Get an inside view of Peter’s playbook with his new Special Report, “Peter Schiff’s Five Favorite Investment Choices for the Next Five Years.” Click here to dowload the report for free. You can find more free services for global investors, and learn about the Euro Pacific advantage, at www.europac.net.

“The Federal Reserve Accountability Act” was introduced by Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Bob Corker yesterday. The bill takes the cake out of Paul’s bill and leaves nothing but the frosting.

The bill avoids review of the Fed’s regular lending programs, such as the longstanding discount window, and its interest-rate decisions.

So, it excludes the fundamentals, the very actions 75% of the American people say they want to know about. The attitude of these so-called representatives is reprehensible.

I’m willing to bet that Merkley and Corker have some large donors in the banking industry.

This may be expected, but it doesn’t mean those of us that support a full audit as outlined in Ron Paul’s bill should just lay down. If anything, the fight has just begun. Please call your representatives and make sure they understand the difference between the full audit and the waterboarded audit introduced yesterday. Tell them that you will not accept anything other than a full audit. It is time to take off the gloves and fight. It’s going to get dirty in DC. Well, more dirty than it already is.

Here is a PDF of the new bill.

Here is a Press Release from the Campaign For Liberty about the bill.

As usual Dr. Paul defends the free market even when asked rather convoluted questions about “how much” the government should support the market. I found the interview a bit odd. In that both the host and Paul were trying to find some kind of middle ground between a government managed economy and a free market position. The common point implied that the government shouldn’t be bailing out these big Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs yet they continue to use tax payer money to do so.

Check out the video below. NOTE: The audio/video sync appears to be off as is custom on some videos processed by Youtube.

“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it’s realized that our liberties and our wealth are in jeopardy.” – Dr. Ron Paul

Originally published October 16, 2009 at http://towneforcongress.com/economy/liberty-candidates-2010-the-year-of-hope-1

Ever wonder what happened to that sense of hope and change that most of the voters in the United States were swept up by last fall?

America does need “hope.” America does need “change.”

However, the mainstream Republican and Democratic party machines are both repeating like bad records – “more spending, more taxes, more war, more debt.”

If you flip the record, all you hear is “less liberty, fewer jobs, less prosperity.”

Why doesn’t America consider a sound money and slashing federal spending?

Why doesn’t America consider auditing and cutting back the powers of the ruinous FED?

Why doesn’t America consider destroying the IMMORAL and UNNECESSARY federal income tax?

Why doesn’t America consider a different foreign policy – where there is third choice besides bombing or economic sanctions? Why not replace the blowback our foreign policy has resulted in with a little love and peaceful trade?

Why doesn’t America replace its civil liberties that were stripped during the unconstitutional USA PATRIOT Act, which blasphemes the very concept of individual liberty?

Why doesn’t America consider replacing our “crony corporatism” system with a truly free market?

And, above all, WHY DOESN’T AMERICA MAKE ITS POLITICIANS ACCOUNTABLE TO THEM???

These images are not intended as an anti-Obama ad, but rather as a statement in the power of the individual. The hope for our futures will not come from following any single man!  It is only by thinking for ourselves, and realizing that all hope for change lies inside each of us, and the key to unlock the change rests in each of our minds.

To download the image, please right-click, select “Save Image As…” and save to your desktop and use however you like. We make the suggestion that all Facebook supporters use this image for their profile picture for awhile. Its message is powerful and simple enough to reach many who do not realize that there is something dreadfully wrong with America, and only together can we bring into being a revolution in thought.

Remember, the truth persists and illuminates, even if there is no one to utter it.  Be the change that you wish to see in the world.

The campaign gives its sincere thanks to Erik Gumbrecht for the concept and Ernest Ibarra, Jr. for the graphic design.

Restore the Republic! Re-legalize the Constitution!

Jake Towne, Candidate for US House PA-15  TowneForCongress.com

Dr. Mike Vasovski, Candidate for US House SC-3 VasovskiForCongress.com

Paul Lambert, Candidate for US House AL-6 VoteLambert.org

Jaynee Germond, Candidate for US House OR-4  Germond2010.com

William Kern, Candidate for US House NJ-1, KernForCongress.com

RJ Harris, Candidate for US House OK-4 RJHarris2010.com

Each of the above candidates have the answers to the above questions.

Towne for Congress addresses them with the below links.

• Campaign Principles
• Sound Monetary Policy and the FED
• The Federal Income Tax
• The Wars Abroad
• Corporatism and Bailouts
• Accountability through the novel yet simple Our Open Office plan
• Health Care

Jake Towne for Congress – Hope and Change Ad

by Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit from the Economic Collapse

While all the talk at present is about economic corners turned and markets charging ahead, no one is paying much notice to an American economy deteriorating before our eyes. These myopic commentators seem to be simply moving past the now almost-universally held conclusion that before the crash of 2008, our economy was on an unsustainable course. If these imbalances had been corrected, then perhaps I too would be joining in the euphoria. But evidence abounds that we have not veered at all from that dangerous path.

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending as a percentage of U.S. GDP has risen to 71%, a post-World War II record. This level is notably higher than other wealthy industrialized countries, and vastly higher than the levels sustained by China and other emerging economies. At the same time, our industrial output is contracting, our trade deficit is expanding once again (after contracting earlier in the year), and our savings rate is plummeting (after an early year surge).

The data confirms that government stimuli are worsening the structural imbalances underlying our economy. The recent ‘rebound’ in GDP is not resulting from increased economic output, but merely from the fact that we are borrowing more than ever. That is precisely how we got ourselves into this mess. An economy cannot grow indefinitely by borrowing more than it produces. Not only is such a course untenable, but the added debt ensures a deeper recession when the bills come due.

This soon-to-be-called depression will not end until the pendulum of consumer spending habits swings violently in the other direction. This will be a jarring change, but it is the splash of cold water that we need to return our economy to viability. I believe that consumer spending as a share of GDP will need to temporarily contract to roughly 50% of GDP, before eventually moving toward its historic mean of 65%. Such a move would indicate a restoration of our personal savings, a decline in borrowing and trade deficits, and an increased industrial output. That would be a real recovery.

In the meantime, the higher the spending percentage climbs, the more painful the ultimate decline becomes.

Consumers and governments must spend less so their savings can be made available to businesses for capital investments. Businesses, in turn, will produce more products and employ more people – increasing domestic prosperity. However, rather than allowing a painful cure to return our economy to health, the government prefers to numb the voting public with a toxic saline-drip of deficit spending and cheap money.

The primary factor that enables our government to peddle economic snake oil is the dollar’s unique role as the world’s reserve currency, and our creditors’ willingness to preserve its status. By buying up dollars and loaning them back to us through Treasury debt, productive countries give American politicians carte blanche to play Santa Claus.

Ironically, as foreign governments finance our spending spree, they are simultaneously scolding us for our low savings rate. At the recent G20 meeting in Pittsburgh, all agreed – including President Obama – that resolving the global economic imbalances was a top priority. By definition, this would require Americans to spend less and save more. However, with foreign central banks continuing to buy our debt, the President has shown no political will to encourage this change.

Normally, if politicians run up the government deficit, voters soon suffer the unpleasant consequences of higher inflation and rising interest rates. Yet, if foreign central banks keep supplying the funds, these consequences are indefinitely postponed. As a result, there is no need for American politicians to ever make the tough choices required to solve our problems.

Instead, the burden may fall squarely on the citizens of those governments doing all the lending. The conflict is that within the creditor states, a vocal minority actually benefits from this subsidy (owners of Chinese exporters, for example) while the overwhelming majority fails to make the connection. Thus, foreign politicians have the same incentives as ours to keep playing the game.

The bottom line is that foreign governments can lecture us all they want about the need for prudence but if they keep lending, we’ll keep spending. Any parent knows that if you give your child a curfew yet never impose any penalties when it’s violated, it will not be respected. My gut feeling is that foreign governments are tiring of our conduct and on the verge of finally imposing some discipline. That means the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered, and the days of American austerity are about to begin.

For a more in-depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar, read Peter Schiff’s 2008 bestseller “The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets” and his newest release “Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit from the Economic Collapse.” Click here to learn more.

More importantly, don’t let the great deals pass you by. Get an inside view of Peter’s playbook with his new Special Report, “Peter Schiff’s Five Favorite Investment Choices for the Next Five Years.” Click here to dowload the report for free. You can find more free services for global investors, and learn about the Euro Pacific advantage, at www.europac.net.