Apparently, there is a lot of talk going around in the Ron Paul camp that the Louisiana GOP establishment are playing games by counting the provisional ballots slowly. The reason they say is because most of the provisional ballots will likely be in favor of Ron Paul. In short, they are accusing the Louisiana GOP of “spinning” the true results of the caucus. Below is a press release from the Ron Paul campaign.
Ron Paul Campaign to Louisiana GOP: Count All the VotesState Party Blunders Put Caucus Results in Question
ARLINGTON, Va.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Today, the Ron Paul presidential campaign calls on the Republican Party of Louisiana to count all the ballots submitted in the state’s January 22 caucus.
“The failure of the Louisiana GOP to properly determine who was and wasn’t eligible to vote threw this entire process into disarray,” said Ron Paul campaign manager Lew Moore. “The party needs to correct this mistake by counting all the votes immediately, and releasing the results.”
Due to mistakes by the Louisiana GOP, hundreds of voters were forced to file provisional ballots, including nearly 500 that could change the outcome of the election. According to party officials, caucus locations relied on a voter list from November 1, 2007 despite the fact that under caucus rules, voters must have registered Republican by November 30, 2007. The Louisiana Secretary of State reports that 2,709 Louisiana residents registered as Republican between November 1, 2007 and November 30, 2007.
In multiple instances on caucus day, state-certified Ron Paul delegates that were on the ballot were forced to file a provisional ballot despite the fact they were pre-approved as delegates.
The Louisiana State GOP also changed the rules at the last minute to allow other candidates to file more delegates. At the time of the original January 10 deadline, Ron Paul had the largest number of delegates pledged to him. The party then changed the rules to give other candidates until January 12 to file more delegates.
Also, some anecdotal information came from someone in Louisiana writing in to LewRockwell.com:
“The McCain loyals that are influential in the LA GOP are trying to make it look like this. It doesn’t compute that McCain has a majority, unless the people on the prolife/profamily ballot that were also on a Romney, Thompson, Huckabee ballot have switched to McCain. Ron Paul had a full delegate list in all districts. Many of the candidates did not. From what we can predict, Ron Paul will likely have nearly half of the 105 delegates(maybe more). So how can McCain possibly have a majority with the other field of candidates? All these provisional ballots are their tactic to stall the results that we know are in Paul’s favor. The registration deadline for switching parties was 11-30th. People that switched before this date did not have their name appear on the GOP roster when going to vote which makes their ballot provisional. The La. GOP had a record number of people changing their party affiliation. Getting these provisional ballots verified is something they are doing at separate districts-stall…stall…..stall…. Also, they extended the delegate deadline; I know Ron Paul had all his people in prior to that. I’m speaking of my particular district which is reflective of the other six.”
At some point the provisional ballots will be counted and we’ll know the true results because press releases can be spun but the votes don’t lie.
Finally we find something “official” from the Louisiana GOP. It looks like the “pro-life, pro-family” delegates won, but when it came down to specific candidates McCain was dubbed the preliminary winner with Ron Paul coming in 2nd, and Romney 3rd.
“Preliminary results show that a majority of the 105 state convention delegates who have been elected ran on a statewide pro-life uncommitted slate,” Villere said. “I congratulate the candidates and supporters of this group on their victory and look forward to working with them to keep our Party platform pro-life at the state and national conventions,” he said.
Delegate candidates endorsed by US Senator John McCain (R-AZ) appear to have won more state convention delegate positions than any other presidential slate at the Louisiana Caucuses.
“I offer my congratulations Senator John McCain on his success in the Louisiana caucuses,”" Villere said. “Senator McCain is an American hero and this is further evidence that he enjoys strong support in Louisiana and throughout the South,” he said.
Supporters of Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) appear to have captured the next highest number of delegate positions.
“I applaud the supporters of Congressman Paul for their enthusiasm and superior organizational ability,” Villere said. “Our Party needs the infusion of new activists who have both political skill and a passion for protecting the freedoms guaranteed to us by the Constitution,” he said. “I left the caucus with a renewed commitment to promote our core Republican principles of limited government and individual freedom, thanks to the zeal displayed by Congressman Paul’s Louisiana supporters,” Villere said.
It looks like Caucus voters not supporting Ron Paul banded together to vote for uncommitted delegates in the name of Ronald Reagan and that is who won, although it is unofficial at this time. That was a very savvy political move. So it looks like Ron Paul will end up with 2nd place at this time. Many provisional ballots must still be counted. For more details read the following Reason magazine article.
I just spoke to Andrew Axom, the field director for Ron Paul 2008 in Louisiana, to figure out how they did in yesterday’s caucuses. The answer? “Honestly, we do not know yet.”
Last night, something like 20,000 Republicans in Louisiana picked the delegates to their state convention, who will select half of the state’s delegates to the national convention (or, as Jim correctly points out, they may select nearly all of them).
The official results are not in yet, but I’m told that McCain beat all of the other candidates. The conservative “uncommitted” effort — designed to influence the party platform — might have come out ahead of everyone…
Ron Paul finished second. His supporters reportedly mobbed the 11 polling places, but many of them could not participate because they were not registered Republicans. They were required to cast provisional ballots, many of which will not count. (The provisional ballots are part of the reason for the delay in tallying the results.)
The article goes on to end with the following.
Final results, when they’re available, will be at the LA GOP’s website. We’re looking at a majority of Republicans in one of the strongest GOP states (post-Katrina) who voted for either Ron Paul or a man who died in 2004.
According to several reports from all sides of the spectrum Ron Paul will take first place in the Louisiana Caucus held yesterday. No, there are no official results yet. Apparently, they will be announced in the morning.
Assuming he does take first, the media will likely ignore the story for the most part. According to them the “reportable” contest will be when Louisiana holds its primary, which technically is just a non-binding straw poll. The Ron Paul delegates elected are the real prize, assuming the battle is not for media coverage, but rather an actual Presidential election.
More to come when the official results are announced.
Obama won in Iowa, and as late as today people were already writing off Hillary’s campaign. Now Hillary proved that the polls are worthless by winning in New Hampshire. The mainstream media and groupthink in this country put way too much stock in Iowa and New Hampshire just because they’re first. They may (or may not) be nice places to live, but they’re no more special or important than any other state. What really matters — the only thing that matters — is the total after all the primaries are over.
We Ron Paul supporters would have of course wished that he placed at least third in New Hampshire. But only three states out of fifty have voted, and the truth is that at this point anything can happen still. On the GOP side, the current delegate leader has only 2.5% of the number needed to win. This means that now is the time for Ron Paul supports to redouble efforts to get the message out. Now is not the time to quit.
According to a post over at Nolan Chart the Iowa outcome is perfect for Ron Paul. CT Johnson writes:
What does this all mean to Ron Paul? Well, Ron Paul has shown that in an ultra-religious conservative state that he can pull 10% of the vote…double digits. It has shown that he can pull close to the well known, stalwart of the Republican establishment, warhorse John McCain. He is literally within spitting distance of third place in a state that is not tailored to him. A state where he would not promise ongoing farm subsidies. This is a huge feat…one that cannot be discounted. What is more important though is that all of the neoconservative candidates will stay in the race with this outcome with maybe the exception of Duncan Hunter. This is very good for Ron Paul. Like I said earlier, at this time Ron Paul cannot win in a one on one or three way race…yet. This Iowa scenario ensures that Ron Paul will face a divided neoconservative field. I cannot overstate how good this is from a strategic standpoint. It gives Ron Paul time to continue to spread the message and gain more and more support while the neoconservative vote is split.
Well, it’s a problem for me and probably the general mainstream of America. According to CNN’s polling last night 86% of GOP voters said religion played a role in their vote. After reading this ABC article it is no surprise that Huckabee won in Iowa among the GOP voters.
Rebekah Swicegood, a 22-year-old music teacher from Lowell, Ark., led the circle with seven friends, pontificating for approximately 20 minutes, beseeching the Lord to provide a victory for Huckabee, a Baptist minister before entering elected office.
Swicegood said, “We pray that you will lift Mike Huckabee up, Lord,” as part of a plan for the U.S. to “return to the God of our founding fathers.”
This would include ending abortion, and ending homosexuality. “When Rome got to the point of accepting sodomy, they fell,” Swicegood said.
Weeping at one point, Swicegood also prayed “that we no longer say, in the name of tolerance, that we accept every wrong religion.”
After her prayer was finished, the group broke out into a chorus of “God Bless America.”
Swicegood said she was home schooled, which is a constituency Huckabee has courted assiduously.
“Mike Huckabee is a picture of God’s last chance for America, because we have rejected him,” she said. “Mike Huckabee is going to beseech God’s mercy on America.” (source: ABC news)
This alone tells us Huckabee’s chances at the GOP nomination. Slim. It does however make a wonderful case for him being selected as a running mate to the eventual nominee.
The GOP Iowa Caucus is pretty much in the bag now with 86% of precincts reporting it looks like Ron Paul will end up in 5th place with 10%. McCain is neck and neck with Fred Thompson for 3rd and 4th place with 13% each. Romney is in solid second place with 25%. And the winner is Mike Huckabee with 34%.
So Ron Paul did not beat John McCain as I had hoped and Fred Thompson proved he has a bit of support as well. One could make the case that most of Thompson’s voters would support McCain if Thompson drops out. Who knows what will happen now with Thompson currently slightly ahead in 3rd place ahead of McCain.
According to CNN 84% of GOP voters said that religion played a role in their vote tonight, most of which went to Mike Huckabee. Not surprising. He also received 40% of the female vote. For comparison, Ron Paul got 8%. I’m willing to bet the 8% of females who voted for Ron Paul are better looking than all of the 40% who voted for Huckabee, but CNN didn’t have that information available.
It looks like the polls (at least the latest Zogby poll posted earlier) were mostly right. The variations actually seemed to go in McCain’s and Thompson’s favor rather than Ron Paul’s.
Ron Paul won first place among Iowa independent voters. This bodes well for New Hampshire because it is 40% independent. The problem there could be that most of them may choose to vote in the Democratic primary for Obama instead of the GOP primary for Paul. We’ll know that answer next Tuesday night.
I’m saddened by Ron Paul’s results, but not devastated. With this result New Hampshire becomes extremely important for him. I stated that Ron Paul had to beat McCain; otherwise, his campaign would most likely become more about the message than actually winning. I stand by that statement.
Until something extraordinary happens to change my mind I don’t believe America is quite ready for Ron Paul. That does not mean I will stop supporting him. In fact, it makes me want to do more to support him. We Ron Paul supporters need to remain steadfast and on message. We can have liberty in our lifetime.
Once again we must remind ourselves, winning revolutions are difficult. This was the first battle in the Ron Paul revolutionary war. The second battle will be on Saturday’s Wyoming Caucus, which is getting little notice. The third, and probably most important battle will be next Tuesday when we move on to the battle of New Hampshire.
Oh and by the way Ron Paul trounced Rudy Giuliani who received 3.6% in Iowa tonight. Duncan “should drop out” Hunter received 0% of the vote.
The number of votes being reported for Rudy Giuliani in Linn County Iowa are drastically out of proportion with the rest of the state. It just pushed him above Ron Paul. Something strange is going on. Hopefully it is a mistake.
Liberty Maven
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