The Ron Paul and Gary Johnson Factor

January 5th, 2012 9:13 pm  |  by  |  Published in Election, Gary Johnson, Liberty, Maven Commentary, Politics, Polling, Ron Paul, War  |  37 Responses

With Ron Paul still pushing for the GOP nomination and Gary Johnson running as a Libertarian it begs a question. I’ve written at length about how I firmly believe that Ron Paul would beat Obama in a general election; however, what about Gary Johnson? No, I don’t think he’d win, but there are likely many Ron Paul supporters who would vote for Johnson over Obama or the GOP nominee. So if that is true it suggests another reason why, if you want nothing more than to defeat Obama, Ron Paul should be your choice for the GOP nomination.

But is it true? What percentage could Gary Johnson receive should Paul not get the GOP nomination and would it be enough to help re-elect Barack Obama? I suspect it is. To add more fuel to this fire Obama is starting to campaign as an anti-war president to difference himself from the GOP field of likely nominees. This “Campaigner-In-Chief” move could be completely stymied by Republicans making Ron Paul their nominee. Who would be the real anti-war candidate if it were a Ron “non-interventionist” Paul vs Barack “drone bomber” Obama contest? This is yet another reason to make Paul the nominee.

Let’s see what you think about the Ron Paul and Gary Johnson factor.

If Ron Paul does not get the GOP nomination, but Gary Johnson gets the Libertarian Party nomination, who will get your vote in the general election?

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Responses

  1. LibertarianMike says:

    January 5th, 2012 at 9:17 pm (#)

    Gary Johnson, of course. Write-ins, no matter who, are a waste of time. (Of course, the same could be said for voting at all, but that's a subject for another day).

  2. LibertarianMike says:

    January 5th, 2012 at 9:17 pm (#)

    Gary Johnson, of course. Write-ins, no matter for whom, are a waste of time. (Of course, the same could be said for voting at all, but that's a subject for another day).

  3. Richard Greaves says:

    January 5th, 2012 at 9:56 pm (#)

    No one else stands a better chance than Ron Paul whether as Republican or third party candidate. Gary Johnson will not have enough exposure to the Republican, Democratic and Independents voters.

    Only Ron Paul after going through the GOP nomination process who has stood the firing squad and survived.

    If Gary Johnson stands as a libertarian candidate, all thhat the opposition have to do is to dish out some lie about him just before the general election and there will not be enough time for Gary to refute. Game over for Gary Johnson.

    So don't get distracted. Focus on Dr Ron Paul. He can win and restore America and consequently the world.

  4. Richard Greaves says:

    January 5th, 2012 at 10:00 pm (#)

    No one else stands a better chance than Ron Paul whether as Republican or third party candidate. Gary Johnson will not have enough time to be exposed to the Republican, Democratic and Independents voters. So Focus on Ron Paul. He can win and restore US.

  5. BCanuck says:

    January 5th, 2012 at 11:10 pm (#)

    Ron Paul is the best candidate to go up against Obama.
    Ron Paul is the best GOP candidate
    Ron Paul deserves to win the GOP nomination.
    But
    IF Ron Paul does not win the GOP nomination, Ron Paul cannot win the Presidency.
    IF Ron Paul is not the GOP nominee THEN it seems only logical all Ron Paul supporters would vote for Gary Johnson – Libertarian.
    Gary Johnson is a very credible candidate.
    Gary Johnson CAN win the Presidency.
    Gary Johnson and Ron Paul do not have the exact policy positions but Gary Johnson is a far, far better candidate than any other GOP candidate! Obama is out of the question and Romney is nearly as bad!
    IF Ron Paul does not win the GOP nomination ….
    PLEASE VOTE FOR GARY JOHNSON!
    A Ron Paul write-in has no chance at all in making a difference in the US.
    A vote for Gary Johnson is the election is a vote for meaningful change.
    A vote for Gary Johnson is the next best thing to a vote for Ron Paul.
    A vote for Gary Johson is vote to turn the US away from the Democratic-Republican-Corporate Political Complex.
    GARY JOHNSON CAN WIN!
    This is a real opportunity!
    Gary Johnson was a popular and successful Republican Governor in a 2:1Democrat state.
    Gary Johnson has a real, solid, proven track record as a small-government leader.
    Gary Johnson has a proven record of attracting independents – he will pick up ‘buyer’s remorse former Obama voters.
    Gary Johnson is proven ELECTABLE!
    Please take advantage of this opportunity to effect positive change next November.
    Gary Johnson needs the energy and commitment of Ron Paul voters to make this possible.
    If Ron Paul does not win the GOP nomination please, please, please …
    VOTE GARY JOHNSON 2012.

  6. Bert Tully says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 2:52 am (#)

    Ron Paul is 76, he has never once won a statewide election, and he has more skeletons in his closet than a taxidermist (the newsletters being just the tip of the iceberg – stay tuned). His only executive experience, btw, came from running a small publishing operation – and we all know what kind of managerial skills he demonstrated there. I voted for him in my state's primary 4 years ago, and I will do so again this year. Just saying, those of you who somehow see him as "more electable" than a successful 2-term governor who has never published batshit crazy newsletters nor posed for Stormfront photo ops might want to turn off the Alex Jones Show and join the rest of us in the real world. PEACE!

  7. republicanmother says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 8:41 am (#)

    If RP endorsed Gary Johnson, he would definitely be a player. I know I'm done voting for the
    Bank Party. Given the results of the Iowa vote, I'd say at least 15% of former GOP folks like myself are totally done too. That means the GOP can't win an election without us.

    I would add that Ron Paul was the proprietor of a successful medical practice, which is more executive experience than Obama or Mr. Santorum.

  8. Karl Ruser says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 8:48 am (#)

    If Paul was as libertarian with his social issue views as he is with economics he'd probably be much more popular with the mainstream voter. (His age is a problem as well) Gary Johnson is the only candidate who's positions actual match most voters – the old "fiscal conservative / social moderate" group. It is important that his voice be heard in 2012. Fox / CNN did a disservice to the US citizens by hiding his candidacy and instead focusing on the looney-bin GOP horse race.

  9. Holly says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 10:28 am (#)

    Gary Johnson could also draw votes from Obama’s Democratic voters in the gay community, as Johnson supports gay marriage while Obama does not.

  10. shawn says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 11:34 am (#)

    Gary Johnson should be the Libertarian candidate

  11. Rachel says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 12:07 pm (#)

    I like Gary Johnson and if Dr. Paul were not running I'd throw my money behind Gary. However, Dr. Paul has the exposure and that is what counts this time. To the guy saying Dr. Paul has no executive experience outside of publishing a newsletter … ummm, he didn't run the day to day operation of publishing newsletters. He does have executive experience though. What do you call running a medical practice for 30 yrs? Goodness, you must not know any doctors in private practice because I assure you there is no difference in running a medical practice than running any other small business. Both have to focus on bottom lines, P&L, taxes, employment decisions, distribution of money to supplies vs capital expenditures, the list goes on. No way one could say running a medical practice isn't running a business.

  12. Jackson Baer says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 2:24 pm (#)

    Ron Paul is getting very little national media coverage, even with his strong showing in Iowa and polling around 20% and in second place in New Hampshire. It's all about Romney, Santorum and even Gingrich who is sinking like a ton of bricks. I wish the mainstream media would give equal coverage so people can hear about all the candidates running.
    http://www.whatthehellbook.com/2012/01/05/fired-f

  13. Jackson Baer says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 2:24 pm (#)

    Ron Paul is getting very little national media coverage, even with his strong showing in Iowa and polling around 20% and in second place in New Hampshire. It's all about Romney, Santorum and even Gingrich who is sinking like a ton of bricks. I wish the mainstream media would give equal coverage so people can hear about all the candidates running.
    http://www.whatthehellbook.com/2012/01/05/fired-f

  14. Jackson Baer says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 2:24 pm (#)

    Ron Paul is getting very little national media coverage, even with his strong showing in Iowa and polling around 20% and in second place in New Hampshire. It's all about Romney, Santorum and even Gingrich who is sinking like a ton of bricks. I wish the mainstream media would give equal coverage so people can hear about all the candidates running.
    http://www.whatthehellbook.com/2012/01/05/fired-f

  15. Jackson Baer says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 2:24 pm (#)

    Ron Paul is getting very little national media coverage, even with his strong showing in Iowa and polling around 20% and in second place in New Hampshire. It's all about Romney, Santorum and even Gingrich who is sinking like a ton of bricks. I wish the mainstream media would give equal coverage so people can hear about all the candidates running.
    http://www.whatthehellbook.com/2012/01/05/fired-f

  16. Jackson Baer says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 2:24 pm (#)

    Ron Paul is getting very little national media coverage, even with his strong showing in Iowa and polling around 20% and in second place in New Hampshire. It's all about Romney, Santorum and even Gingrich who is sinking like a ton of bricks. I wish the mainstream media would give equal coverage so people can hear about all the candidates running.
    http://www.whatthehellbook.com/2012/01/05/fired-f

  17. Jackson Baer says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 2:24 pm (#)

    Ron Paul is getting very little national media coverage, even with his strong showing in Iowa and polling around 20% and in second place in New Hampshire. It's all about Romney, Santorum and even Gingrich who is sinking like a ton of bricks. I wish the mainstream media would give equal coverage so people can hear about all the candidates running.
    http://www.whatthehellbook.com/2012/01/05/fired-f

  18. Islander505 says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 4:41 pm (#)

    How about a followup poll asking

    "If Ron Paul did not get the GOP nomination and then endorsed, indeed publicly threw all of his support to Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?"

  19. Eric Blitz says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 4:41 pm (#)

    Gary Johnson, who is arguably a stronger libertarian than Ron Paul (though I like both). Don't 'waste' your vote arguments have been made by the Republicans and Democrats for years. I say, don't waste your vote as a libertarian by tilting at the windmills of either of the other parties. Your vote has much greater impact by voting libertarian than adding a +1 to the duopoly, because: (1) It makes a point to the broader political community about the strength of libertarian commitment; (2) it helps the libertarian party maintain or obtain ballot access, which the duopoly has worked so hard to make difficult through ballot retention laws; and (3) if Ron Paul doesn't get the nomination of the Republican Party, the eventual nominee will be no different than President Obama. They will either want big government to control social issues, or big government to pick the winners and losers in the economic sphere. Only libertarians like Ron Paul and Gary Johnson will refuse to use the commitment to limited government as merely a campaign platform, as the other candidates will do. They pay lip service to try to attract libertarians to continue to waste their votes in the two party process. I for one, have had enough of that.

  20. Free_Trade says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 5:22 pm (#)

    If Ron Paul doesn't get the Republican nomination, he'll stop campaigning and then there's no way he'll win – it's much better to vote for Gary Johnson. I know Ron Paul is like a god to a lot of his supporters, but it's about the ideas, not the person, and we should vote for the person most likely to win or make an impact on the election results.

  21. Free_Trade says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 5:24 pm (#)

    I like Ron Paul and Gary Johnson, but Johnson's a slightly better candidate – he was a two-term governor in a Democrat-leaning state, he has a proven track record, and he's MUCH YOUNGER, so he's got a lot more years to spread these Libertarian ideas.

  22. Free_Trade says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 5:25 pm (#)

    I think we need more than just one person to publicize Libertarian ideas – otherwise Ron Paul will be seen as a lone lunatic. Gary Johnson has endorsed Ron Paul for the nomination, and will probably back out if Ron Paul is nominated. So I think Ron Paul should return the favor, and if he's not nominated, he should ask all his supporters to vote Gary Johnson.

  23. Free_Trade says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 5:27 pm (#)

    If Ron Paul doesn't get the nomination, he should tell people to either write him in, or ask then to vote for Gary Johnson. I'd hate to see the libertarian vote get split up.

  24. naql says:

    January 6th, 2012 at 6:51 pm (#)

    Please people, I will vote for Ron Paul in the unlikely event he is the Republican nominee, and I likely will even vote for him if he runs as an independent. But, please, if Paul is NOT on the ballot and Johnson is, do not write-in Ron Paul or fail to vote… concentrate our efforts on the option we do have. And, FWIW, Gary Johnson is my first choice.

  25. Hardy says:

    January 7th, 2012 at 9:50 am (#)

    The 30% voting to write-in Paul shows a big problem with the Paul movement. Is it a liberty movement or is only about Paul?

    Johnson's libertarian credentials are just as strong as Paul's and Johnson has more relevant executive experience.

    If Paul doesn't win the GOP nomination and 80% of Paul's supporters switch to Johnson… then we have a movement where Johnson's poll numbers which are currently 9% nationally will jump to 15% nationally and Johnson will be in the debate with Obama/Romney. At this point it's just a continue climb up the poll numbers peaking for the November election where Johnson can actually win.

  26. Bert Tully says:

    January 7th, 2012 at 1:03 pm (#)

    Exactly. As much as I've always loved Dr. Paul… his is either a vanity campaign, or a lead-in to Rand 2016. We need to focus on ideas, not popularity contests & book sales.

  27. Sovereign Globalist says:

    January 7th, 2012 at 3:14 pm (#)

    Much as I like Ron Paul, I'm a pro choice libertarian. Ron Paul intends to not leave the Republican party if he does not get the nomination, so logically my vote will go to Gary Johnson. I wrote in Ron Paul in 2008 for president because I did not think Bob Barr was / is a libertarian. Mr. Barr was a poor choice as the LP candidate. Ron Paul was more believable. But now the Libertarian Party has a real libertarian candidate. So after my state's Republican primary I will make a statement by switching my party registration back from Republican to Libertarian.

  28. Sovereign Globalist. says:

    January 7th, 2012 at 3:18 pm (#)

    I agree. I am libertarian and although I have contributed to Dr. Paul's campaign, I am troubled by his social conservatism. I am glad Gary Johnson switched to the Libertarian Party. I have an easier decision who to vote for in November. I think Mitt Romney will get the Republican nomination and Dr. Paul will drop out entirely by June. I think Most Paul supporters will get behind Gary Johnson. It's going to be exciting for the Libertarian Party this summer.

  29. Sovereign Globalist says:

    January 7th, 2012 at 3:20 pm (#)

    I agree with what you say. I am glad there are more Ron Paul type candidates out there agitating for freedom. I'm in agreement more with Gary Johnson than Ron Paul but I have been contributing to both campaigns.

  30. Sovereign Globalist says:

    January 7th, 2012 at 3:22 pm (#)

    Agreed. I have voted Libertarian for decades and I never ever considered my votes a waste. These elections are not like horse races in which you hope you pick the winner. That is not how voting should be. Voting is to vote for your values.

  31. rich hudson says:

    January 9th, 2012 at 12:31 pm (#)

    Frankly, Gov. Johnson has a superior track record and a better platform than Paul. While he will likely become the Liberatarian candidate, he is truly on the far right of the spectrum. I am also switching party affiliation and volunteering for Gary Johnson. All the rest make me sick.

  32. LibertarianMike says:

    January 9th, 2012 at 2:58 pm (#)

    I understand you like Johnson better than Paul, but seriously, does Paul make you sick?

  33. Elizabeth says:

    February 25th, 2012 at 9:16 pm (#)

    Problem is, we need the polls to start including Gary Johnson, but as they made a pointed fact to exclude him saying he didn't have the numbers to include him while ignoring the fact he had higher numbers than Huntsman and Santorum who were included, I doubt they will include him in any polls that would allow him to debate the GOP nominee and Obama on the stage. I think the polling organizations like Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN and the like want to ex.cude Johnson because based on common sense he would whip Obama, Mitt, Romney and Newt. Paul could hold his own against Johnson, but no matter who wins the GOP nomination, I'm voting for Gary.

  34. Elizabeth says:

    February 25th, 2012 at 9:22 pm (#)

    Problem i, Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN, CNBC and nearly every other polling organization, except Fox, was excluding Johnson, even when he was polling higher than Huntsman and Santorum, yet they kept Santorum and Huntsman in the polls. I fear many of these biased polling organizations will merely lump anyone who says "Gary Johnson" into the "not sure", " someone else" or "undecided" like they did when Johnson was still a GOP contender. Mno matter, I am hoping Johnson will not be shut out and get a fair shake for once.

  35. Mark says:

    March 9th, 2012 at 10:50 am (#)

    THIS! Libertarians HAVE to be united. We need to make sure we all vote for the same person!

  36. paulsnx2 says:

    April 9th, 2012 at 8:56 am (#)

    13 weeks later, and still nothing but news letters, the fact that he uses airline miles to upgrade to first class, and that he uses family members to help run his campaigns (to the the tune of nearly 25 thousand paid per each of 6 family member per campaign).

    Wow. Really? These are the skeletons we stayed "tuned" for?

    Romney: A Mormon will not take the south. Protested *for* the Vietnam war, while not serving. Yet another Massachusetts liberal. Not going to win.

    Santorum: Promotes terrorism (quotes praising Israel/Us car bombing in Iran). Wants war more than anything else. Wants to outlaw contraception. Not going to win.

    I don't think Ron Paul gets the nomination. But he is obviously the best Republican Candidate against Obama, as the OP says.

  37. BetteRose Ryan says:

    April 10th, 2012 at 11:05 am (#)

    What we need to do is fund our own polls. I support Gary Johnson because, when he was Governor, he made a huge impression on me with his libertarian way of governing. To me, he proved his ideals were more than just talk. I also support Ron Paul for similar reasons. But if we want to see Johnson (should Paul fail) to get into the polls, we need to commission those polls. Otherwise someone else will and there will be no Paul or Johnson on those polls.
    As to the write-in vote, some states don't allow it unless the person is a qualified candidate, some states don't count write-ins (so your statement never gets made), and some states don't allow it at all. So if Paul fails to get the nomination, the greater statement for liberty would be to vote for Johnson as he will be on the ballot and his votes will count. This sends a message to the eventual winner that they can't have our votes unless they move our direction. It is how the socialist got so much of their platform transformed into reality.