As an avid political junkie, and a statistician, I’m particularly fascinated by polling. The trends of the most recent polls, and the speculation on cause and effect (Did Bachmann’s debate performance really lift her to front-runner status overnight?) are intriguing, if not in any way gratifying.
My background lends itself to picking out oddities, or outliers, as well. When a poll released by CNN and Opinion Research Center (ORC) in late May showed political afterthought Rudy Giuliani leading the race for the GOP’s presidential nomination in 2012, I thought it was a bit bizarre. Here we had a candidate who failed to register a single victory in the party’s 2008 primaries, despite spending more than Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul – two candidates who soundly defeated him at the polls – combined. A candidate who had registered at 9% in two independent polls released in the previous month – a 9% number that was well outside ORC’s 4.5% margin of error. Were they saying that Giuliani had received at least a 3% bump from April to May? Based on nothing except, perhaps, the death of Osama bin Laden?
Ron Paul appeared for a friendly interview with Lou Dobbs last night on Fox Business. They discuss economics and the debt. At the end Dobbs seems to begin to say.. ‘that’s why we need you… [as POTUS]‘, then half-way through realizes he is supposed to be unbiased and changes it up a bit though the implication is still there.
Nice interview, though I wish Paul would choose more optimistic words when he speaks. All of this “I’m afraid there will be people in the streets like we’ve seen in other countries” talk is worrying Grandma and Grandpa voter out there. It reminds me of my penchant for jokingly yelling “WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!” at the top of my lungs while going over the first big drop on a roller-coaster. You know, just for fun. Of course, Ron Paul is being serious and he’s right. I just don’t know if that is earning him the kind of votes he needs to rise even further in the polls.
On Monday, August 15, billionaire Warren Buffett argued in an op-ed for the The New York Times that his taxes should be raised. He claimed that giving the Federal State more of his money would be a good thing.
We disagree. We think Mr. Buffett’s investments do more social good than his taxes do. Here’s why…
None of Mr. Buffett’s companies use force to compel people to do business with them, but everything The States does relies on coercion. This automatically makes Mr. Buffett’s investments better than his tax payments. In addition….
Mr. Buffett’s companies must serve their customers, or go bankrupt. By contrast, Statist programs almost always receive increased budgets when they fail. Thus, businesses have an incentive to use resources wisely, while The State has incentives to waste resources. This is why money spent by The Coercive Sector (The State) tends to have less social utility than money spent by The Voluntary Sector (businesses and charities).
In short, businesses tend to be pro-social because they serve society, while The State tends to be anti-social, because it’s wasteful and coercive.
I wish I received a birthday card containing over $1.5 million. In about 24 hours, Ron Paul’s Birthday “money bomb” has reeled in just that. While I’d probably spend the money on silver or gold, Ron Paul is going to spend the money on spreading the liberty message via his 2012 presidential campaign. And the way Ron Paul spends money that 1.5 million will go a long way.
by John Browne, Senior Market Strategist at Euro Pacific Capital
The basic unwillingness of politicians to face economic and financial realities has caused the United States and European Union to face currency collapse. The politicians are content literally to paper over the problem with massive amounts of newly printed currency. This means that savvy investors, facing major real losses, are turning increasingly to gold. In essence, even though currencies are no longer on a gold standard, they are increasingly being “redeemed” for gold in the marketplace.
For decades, fiscally irresponsible US Administrations have gradually reduced the world’s richest nation, with a currency perceived as ‘good as gold,’ to the position of the largest global debtor, with a debased currency. Furthermore, US stock markets have offered little real return. Indeed, the Dow stands just below 11K, down over 3K points from its all-time high on October 9, 2009. Discounting for inflation shows a loss close to 4K points, or a fall of over 25 percent from its all-time high. Meanwhile, equities in emerging markets have often shown handsome returns.
The recent political wrangling in Washington has damaged the financial credibility of the United States, prompting a long overdue debt downgrade by ratings house Standard & Poor’s. This removes a fundamental pillar supporting the dollar as the global reserve asset of choice.
Back in December of 2007 Liberty Maven discovered a letter written by The main Stream Media Czar to all media outlets outlining the tactics to use in order to ensure Ron Paul did not come close to winning the GOP nomination in 2008. Feel free to read that ancient document, if you like.
Now the same tactics appear to be in use today. The only difference is that the effort to ignore Ron Paul is much more blatant this time around. By now you’ve probably seen this segment by Jon Stewart. It pretty much sums up the bias against Ron Paul quite well.
Jack Cafferty used his own time on CNN recently on the same topic.
It would have been much more difficult for them to ignore Paul if he had won Iowa outright. So the same problem from 2008 is front and center for 2012.
How do we Ron Paul supporters combat this kind of treatment? The Jon Stewart segment above has nearly 700,000 views. That’s a good start.
by Michael Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital (www.europac.net)
Paul Krugman sounded the war cry this Sunday on Fareed Zakaria’s program Global Public Square. After all, he asserted, only spending equivalent to another World War could lead us back to prosperity. That, and a healthy dose of inflation.
Krugman argued that inflation would address our debt problem by reducing our bill in current dollar terms and that the Second World War was a giant stimulus plan that actually worked. Thankfully, he added the refrain, “Hopefully we don’t need a world war to get there,” but I sensed a tinge of regret in his voice. After all, the Keynesian economist’s favorite pastime is seeing people waste their lives digging holes in the ground or sacrifice their lives in war. Both acts create economic growth according to the topsy-turvy logic of men like Krugman.
The truth is that wars are a miserable misallocation of capital and usually leave financial ruin in their wake. The US did not boom in the ’50s because we fought World War II, but because we resoundingly won. It was the byproduct of having an unscathed manufacturing base, solid infrastructure, an intact military, most of the world’s gold, and the only reserve currency.
The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Friday the 12th that Obamacare’s “individual mandate” violates the Constitution. This mandate, which is the foundation of Obamacare, requires individuals to purchase health insurance.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: “The bill is mislabeled. This is not protecting children from Internet pornography. It’s creating a database for everybody in this country for a lot of other purposes.” – Rep. John Conyers